Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid tips and predictions: Vinicius Junior to settle Champions League final
- George Dempsey
- 31 May 2024
Borussia Dortmund return to the scene of their last Champions League final appearance to take on Real Madrid at Wembley on Saturday night (2000 BST).
It’s 11 years ago to the week when Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich contested the Champions League final at Wembley, and only a late show from Real Madrid prevented history from repeating itself.
Arjen Robben struck in the 89th minute to break Dortmund's hearts on that memorable day in 2013. Meanwhile Madrid’s semi-final hero, Joselu, went one better with goals in the 88th and 91st minutes to break Bayern last month.
BVB boss Edin Terzic’s side spent most of their semi-final tie on the back foot, particularly in Parc des Princes, yet found a way to win both legs 1-0.
They’ll need their backline to be at the height of its powers again on Saturday if they’re to deny Real Madrid a 15th Champions League title.
Bookmakers are struggling to see past numero quince for Los Blancos, with most slapping a measly price of 3/10 on Carlo Ancelotti’s side to lift the trophy.
There’s more meat on the bones of the 90-minute market, specifically 8/13 with Planet Sport Bet at the time of writing, but the Germans have been written off at 4/1.
PSG’s comeback win against Barcelona, Dortmund’s success in Paris and the history of the Champions League all tell us to be wary of such a price.
That said, Madrid’s love affair with this trophy is undeniable. They’ve won all seven finals they’ve appeared in this century.
They found the net at least twice in five of those matches, often running riot, which is a real contrast to recent finals. The last four have finished 1-0 and the last five have been won to nil.
On this occasion, Real’s defensive record has us leaning towards goals. They’ve conceded in their last five in the competition, and Dortmund have found the net in their last 10.
Despite conceding in nine of 12 in the competition, Madrid remain unbeaten and produced wins in five of those matches, with Vinicius and Rodrygo contributing five goals apiece.
Edin Terzic's side looks extremely limited despite reaching the final. Don’t be surprised when they spend most of the game defending their box, allowing the Spaniards to rack up shots.
Team news
David Alaba and Aurelien Tchouameni will miss the final, while Andriy Lunin is a major doubt and could be replaced by Thibaut Courtois.
Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham are the driving forces behind Real’s success this season and will likely start on Saturday.
Ramy Bensebaini and Julien Duranville are unavailable for the visitors.
Sebastien Haller is also a doubt and it would be a shame if he were unable to feature given his health struggles in recent seasons.
Key stats
- Real Madrid have conceded in nine of their Champions League matches
- Both teams have scored in five of Madrid’s previous six final appearances
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in 47 matches inside 90 minutes across all competitions
- Borussia Dortmund have scored in their last 10 Champions League matches
- Borussia Dortmund lifted the trophy in 1997 and finished runners-up in 2013
