Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund tips and predictions: Both teams to score in Champions League
- George Dempsey
- 9 April 2024
Atletico Madrid will look to make the most of home advantage when they face Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on Wednesday. Still, we don't anticipate it being plane sailing (2000 BST).
Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund, usually tasked with keeping the big guns in their respective leagues honest, are far from their best this season.
The minimum requirement for Diego Simeone’s side is to be the best of the rest in Spain but that honour looks like it will be going to surprise package Girona this year.
But despite their struggles, Atleti are still quite the force at the Wanda Metropolitano. The Spaniards have won 23, drawn twice, and lost a pair of matches to Barcelona since 2022.
Over in Germany, Edin Terzic’s side are struggling to crack the top four. They’re locked level on points with fourth-place RB Leipzig with six games left.
We’ve seen evidence of first-leg leads carrying less importance in recent seasons, but the second leg casts these teams into the role in which they struggle most.
Unlike Atleti, the Germans have been hospitable hosts. They’ve saved their best performances for the road, which is again a stark contrast to their opponents.
Terzi’s men have lost three of 20 away matches this campaign and can boast wins over Newcastle, AC Milan and Bayern Munich.
They’re unbeaten in six Champions League matches since a slow start, and crucially, they’ve scored in each of those.
A hallmark of Simeone’s teams through the years has been clean sheets and an abundance of yellow cards. They’re still as filthy as the day is long, but they’re susceptible to conceding.
Fifteen of 22 visitors to Madrid have found the net this season and notably, they’ve shipped eight in nine in Europe.
We think this game will be more open than we’d typically see in a first leg, so we’ll try and take advantage of some goals-based markets.
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Team news
Atletico Madrid will be without Mario Hermoso and Thomas Lemar, while Memphis Depay is doubtful.
Antoine Griezmann will partner with Alvaro Morata in the attack.
Ramy Bensebaini and Donyell Malen are ruled out for the visitors.
Ex-Premier League players Jadon Sancho, Emre Can, Marcel Sabitzer and Ian Maatsen are expected to start for the Germans.
Key stats
- There have been over 2.5 goals in 16 of Atletico’s 22 home matches
- Atletico have conceded against 15 of 22 visitors this season
- Atletico’s nine European matches have averaged three goals
- Dortmund have scored in 17 of 20 away matches this season
- Dortmund have scored in their last six Champions League matches
Suggested bets
