Burnley vs Liverpool: Buoyant Reds can take a step closer

After Alisson’s incredible winning goal at West Brom, the Merseysiders should be backed to stay on course for a top-four finish by taking victory at Turf Moor on Wednesday.

When: Wednesday, May 19, 20:15 BST

How to watch: Sky Sports Main Event

Follow the Burnley v Liverpool game in our score centre

Best bets

Liverpool to win 3-0 at 17/2 (bet365)

Liverpool to win 3-1 at 10/1 (bet365)

Mo Salah to score first goal at 5/2 (Unibet)

Burnley have already caused Liverpool pain this season after ending the Reds' 68-game unbeaten home run with a 1-0 win in January.

That opened the floodgates for away teams to thrive at Anfield and the next five - Brighton, Manchester City, EvertonChelsea and Fulham - also pulled Liverpool's pants down.

But when it comes to struggling at home, Burnley themselves are pretty high on that list.

A look at the table shows that Sean Dyche's men have suffered eight defeats at Turf Moor. They've managed only four wins and their tally of just 14 goals is the joint-third fewest amount at home in the top-flight.

Leeds were the latest team to inflict misery when romping to a 4-0 victory at Burnley at the weekend.

Dyche took that on the chin and knows that there will be a different dynamic on Wednesday night as a limited number of home fans will be allowed back into the stadium.

The Burnley website says up to 3,500 spectators will be admitted and, although that's not many, it's still enough to make quite a din.

The players will surely be inspired by it, but perhaps that applies to Liverpool's too.

Last three meetings

Liverpool 0-1 Burnley (January 21, 2021)

The Reds were already in poor form after three draws and a defeat in their previous four Premier League games and Burnley confirmed the slump with a famous victory - their first at Anfield since 1974.

Liverpool had 72% possession and 27 shots but just six were on target. This was the fourth league game running in which they'd failed to score.

Burnley were solid at the back and pulled off the shock after Ashley Barnes tucked home an 83rd-minute penalty after being brought down by Alisson. It was Liverpool's first home defeat since April 2017.

Liverpool 1-1 Burnley (July 11, 2020)

Liverpool were sensational at Anfield in their title-winning campaign of 2019/20, almost producing the perfect season of 19 home wins out of 19.

The team to wreck that record were Burnley. The Clarets looked set to become the Reds' 18th victims in a game played in July after Andy Robertson gave the hosts a first-half advantage.

But despite several chances to extend the lead, Liverpool couldn't put a second past the inspired Nick Pope and were pegged back when Jay Rodriguez fired home with 21 minutes left. A resolute Burnley held off the home side's late push to secure a hard-fought draw.

Burnley 0-3 Liverpool (August 31, 2019)

While Burnley have caused Liverpool plenty of grief at Anfield with a win and two draws on their last four visits, the Merseysiders have been dominant at Turf Moor.

They've won five of the six Premier League games staged there, including this most recent clash a couple of years ago.

A deflected Trent Alexander-Arnold effort off Chris Wood and a Sadio Mane strike in the space of four first-half minutes put Liverpool in control and Roberto Firmino sealed a comfortable victory with a third 10 minutes from time. The only negative was Mane getting the hump when being substituted but, as we've seen recently, the Senegalese striker can let his emotions show. It soon passes.

Head-to-head - last 10 meetings

Liverpool wins: 6

Draws: 2

West Brom wins: 2

Liverpool scored: 18

West Brom scored: 8

Liverpool have a head of steam

A head of steam? Well, Sam Allardyce's head was certainly steaming after the golden head of Alisson gave the Reds an extraordinary last-gasp win at West Brom.

With wins over Southampton, Manchester United and the Baggies, Liverpool have dragged themselves from a position where Champions League football looked highly doubtful to being big favourites to now hunt down either or both of Chelsea and Leicester and grab that prized top-four spot.

Victory here will definitely take them into the top four and then they'll have fans back at Anfield to try and complete the job at home to Crystal Palace this Sunday.

There's also the manner of their latest two victories to take into account.

Winning at Old Trafford for the first time under Jurgen Klopp was huge and when your goalkeeper goes up and nods in the winner deep into injury-time with a header that Andy Carroll would be proud of, it's fair to presume that Liverpool will be thinking that the stars are beginning to align.

Liverpool's last five results:

Leeds 1-1 Liverpool (Mane)

Liverpool 1-1 Newcastle (Salah)

Liverpool 2-0 Southampton (Mane, Thiago)

Man Utd 2-4 Liverpool (Jota, Firmino 2, Salah)

West Brom 1-2 Liverpool (Salah, Alisson)

Scoreline prediction: Burnley 0-3 Liverpool

The job is far from done yet but Liverpool are now starting to resemble the team that won the title last year: namely, winning matches and somehow getting it done when all seems lost.

They were trailing at both Old Trafford and The Hawthorns but turned those games around and that's reversed the previous trend of throwing away leads.

In theory, there's an 'X' factor here that could hurt Liverpool as Burnley welcome back fans.

But Liverpool have won five of their last six games at Turf Moor with passionate Clarets fans roaring their team on and, let's be honest, Burnley's home record is pretty terrible.

It's a big ask that they can suddenly flick a switch now that fans are present and who's to say it won't have an adverse effect in the sense of Burnley feeling compelled to charge forward and leaving gaps for Liverpool to exploit at the back.

Liverpool are the second-highest scorers on the road this season and Burnley struggle to find the net at home.

There's no value in the outright market with Liverpool just 1/4 but a couple of correct score bets on 3-0 and 3-1 make sense and offer value at 17/2 and 10/1 respectively.

Best Goalscorer bets

A swish of his left boot before West Brom's defence and goalkeeper could get set saw Mo Salah lash home his 22nd Premier League goal of the campaign.

That puts him level in the Golden Boot race with Harry Kane, who had netted against Wolves earlier in the day.

Salah is desperate to finish as top scorer and the Egyptian is ending the campaign strongly. He's been particularly good on the road, firing home in four of Liverpool's last five away games.

He's only 1/2 to score anytime but the 5/2 for first goal is worth a go.

Oh, and shame on the bookies for not pricing up Alisson in the goalscorer markets!

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