Manchester City know victory over Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday night will send them into the Champions League last 16 as group winners.
However, they lost the reverse fixture and another defeat here would see them surrender the group lead with just one game to go - and possibly leave them facing a nervous trip to Leipzig on matchday six to secure their place in the knockout stages.
When, where and how to watch Man City vs PSG
When: Wednesday, November 24, 8pm GMT
Where: Etihad Stadium, Manchester
How to watch: BT Sport 2
Best bets for Man City vs PSG
PSG 2-0 Man City (Champions League group stage - September 28, 2021)
The English side did not play badly but were always up against it after falling behind to an early Idrissa Gueye strike.
They should have levelled in the first half but after Raheem Sterling had headed against the bar, Bernardo Silva somehow failed to convert the rebound, also striking the woodwork.
Man City vs PSG previous meetings
Man City wins: 3
PSG wins: 1
Man City goals: 7
PSG goals: 5
Both teams scored: 2
Over 2.5 goals: 2
Result betting for Man City vs PSG
City are just 4/7 to win on Wednesday night which looks pretty short given how PSG managed to deal with them in the reverse fixture, while the absence of Kevin de Bruyne is also a blow.
The French side's famous front line is clearly capable of causing problems and they will have their backers at 17/4.
That said, City do warrant favouritism. They've scored bundles of goals at the Etihad this season - hitting 3+ in six of their eight games so far in all competitions.
Perhaps the draw is the value at 10/3. That result isn't ideal for City - they'd much prefer to seal top spot with a win here - but it would leave them in control of the group heading into the final round of matches.
A share of the spoils would also leave PSG knowing a draw at home to Brugge next would be enough to take them into the last 16, regardless of what the Belgians do against Leipzig on Wednesday.
Goals and goalscorer bets for Man City vs PSG
The first goal could be crucial given how it would immediately mix up the group standings.
If City score first, they would be on course to secure top spot, leaving next month's game in Leipzig as a dead rubber.
However, if PSG net first, they'd have control of the group - a win for them would leave them just needing to beat Brugge at home in two weeks' time to go through as pool winners.
That opens the potential for the team who scores first to adapt a more defensive approach and under 2.5 goals does look a little big at 29/20. It's occurred in four of the sides' six previous meetings, including two of the three over the past couple of seasons.
That statistic is a tad off-putting when it comes to looking at the goalscorer markets but Lionel Messi to score any time at 9/5 will always be tempting.
After scoring courtesy of a brilliant individual run in the reverse fixture, the Argentine now has seven goals in seven games against City, while it was also his seventh goal in five Champions League games against teams managed by his former boss, Pep Guardiola.
We've seen time and again how Messi can create a goalscoring situation out of nothing, and while this PSG team is far from prime Barcelona, it's still more than capable of giving Messi the ball in dangerous positions.
For City, Riyad Mahrez's record is worth mentioning.
He scored in both matches against PSG last season and has netted in three of his four Champions League matches this term.
It can be difficult to predict Guardiola's line-up, particularly in attacking positions, but Mahrez has been a regular in the big games, starting every Champions League match so far. He's 11/8 to net in this one.
Those who do think there will be goals should also note Joao Cancelo's form.
The Portuguese drifts into many different areas, as reflected by the fact that he's had more shots than any City player this season.
He's been in cracking form of late, providing five assists in his last three City games. You can get 10/3 for him to add another here.
Cards betting for Man City vs PSG
While it's difficult to be sure if there will be plenty of goals or not, it's much easier to suggest that cards are on the menu.
Italian referee Daniele Orsato leans towards being strict, having shown at least four cards in 21 of his last 28 UEFA club matches.
The two sides have also seen plenty of cards in their recent meetings and 20+ booking points for each certainly looks worth considering. For the uninitiated, it's 10 points for a yellow and 25 for a red.
City have landed 20+ in all three matches with PSG this year, while the French have landed it twice, having a player sent off in both legs of last season's Champions League semi-final.
In terms of individuals, Cancelo's name is underlined again having been booked in six of his last 12 matches for club and country and he may well trouble Orsato here, particularly when you consider PSG are the second most-fouled team in the competition.
He doesn't get booked too often but facing Neymar will be a tough test and with a strict referee on board, it's not that hard to see Walker conceding a few fouls.
PSG's regular card candidates Leandro Paredes and Marco Verratti will also be in the mix in this market.
Paredes played his first club match in two months against Nantes on Saturday so may be slightly off the pace if he starts. He's been carded in two of four appearances for PSG this season, having picked up 13 in 36 last term.
Verratti has seen five cards in eight games and will be expected to perform plenty of defensive duties given City's attacking threat.