Betting preview: Liverpool vs Man City - Reds look value for statement win

Jurgen Klopp’s in-form side are the underdogs to beat champions City at Anfield on Sunday but on the evidence so far that could be a mistake.

The latest heavyweight clash between Liverpool and Manchester City takes place against the backdrop of vastly contrasting weeks in Europe.

Liverpool romped to a 5-1 victory in Porto, the front three of Mo Salah (2), Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino (2) sharing the goals.

But on the same night, City were losing 2-0 to a Lionel Messi-inspired PSG in France.

That provided another contrast as just four days earlier, City had completely outplayed another Premier League title rival, Chelsea, when winning 1-0 at Stamford Bridge.

It's early in the season but, potentially, Sunday's game could have a massive impact on the title race.

When, where and how to watch

When: Sunday, October 3, 4.30pm BST

Where: Anfield

Follow this game via our score centre

Best bets

Liverpool to win at 9/5

Mo Salah to score anytime at 8/5

Sadio Mane to score anytime at 23/10

Liverpool to have Over 5.5 corners at 13/10

Jurgen Klopp could almost enjoy the bonkers entertainment of their ebb-and-flow 3-3 draw with Brentford last week.

The Reds may have scored three eye-catching goals and Brentford three scruffy ones but he admitted Thomas Frank's men deserved something for everything they put into the game.

The result put Liverpool a point clear at the top and and came on the same weekend that Manchester United lost at home to Aston Villa and Chelsea were beaten by City at Stamford Bridge.

However, there will be no exchanges of wry smiles with Pep Guardiola this weekend as there was with Frank.

Klopp will have his game face on. This is massive and both bosses will recall that a home win over City two seasons ago helped fuel Liverpool's relentless march towards the title.

Last three meetings

Liverpool 1-4 Man City (Premier League - February 7, 2021)

Three goals in the last 17 minutes from Ilkay Gundogan, Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden highlighted City's dominance and gave them their first win at Anfield since 2003.

Gundogan had put City in front four minutes after the break and Liverpool were briefly level when Salah fired home from the spot but a nightmare performance from Alisson sparked a Liverpool collapse.

Some context is needed though. Liverpool were in a terrible slump at the time and this was the third home loss in an astonishing run of six straight league defeats at Anfield.

Man City 1-1 Liverpool (Premier League - November 8, 2020)

Before Liverpool's season collapsed and City clicked into top gear, the two played out a draw at the Etihad, a result which left Pep's men still dawdling around in 10th place.

The Reds went for it in the early stages and took the lead through Salah's 13th-minute penalty after Mane had been brought down.

Gabriel Jesus levelled after 31 and City should have been in front at the interval but Kevin de Bruyne rolled his penalty wide after handball had been awarded against Joe Gomez.

Man City 4-0 Liverpool (Premier League - July 2, 2020)

Another romp for City but, once more, context is needed.

This game was played just days after Liverpool had been crowned champions for the first time in 30 years.

Not surprisingly, they were off the pace and a ruthless City cashed in.

De Bruyne, Sterling and Foden fired the hosts into a 3-0 lead before an Alex Olade-Chamberlain own goal made it four on 66. Not that the visitors cared too much.

Last 10 meetings

Liverpool wins: 4

Draws: 3

Man City wins: 3

Liverpool goals: 16

Man City goals: 17

Liverpool price too big

Pep has done well against Klopp in recent head-to-heads but, as mentioned, the two wins came in unusual circumstances: one when Liverpool were in a slump and the other when the Reds were in party mode.

The other context that must be considered ahead of Sunday's match is that this is City's third ultra-tough away game in a week.

I might take a very different view if their last two games had been home to Norwich and home to a poor Champions League team. But they weren't.

In which case, Liverpool look too big at 9/5.

I'm surprised to see City as favourites here (7/5) given the Merseysiders' fast start to the season.

While City have had wobbles, losing the Community Shield against Leicester, losing at Spurs on opening weekend, being held by Southampton at home and that defeat to PSG, Liverpool have been flying.

The Liverpool revival started at the back end of last season when they won five straight to pinch third place.

Jordan Henderson Mo Salah Sadio Mane Liverpool in Porto Sep21

Add that into this season's start which has taken them to the top of the table and it's nine wins and two draws from their last 11 games.

Klopp's side are also scoring goals for fun, netting three or more in each of their six matches.

By contrast, City have fired blanks in four of their 10 games so far. Sometimes it looks as if their failure to land Harry Kane doesn't matter; at other times, when matches are tight, it really does.

This is the Liverpool of 2019 and 2020, so with their strikers all in the goals, I'll back the home win at 9/5 with Planet Sport Bet.

If City reproduce the form they showed at Stamford Bridge it could be different but there must be doubts that they can display such energy levels and relentless high pressing given their punishing recent schedule.

Goalscorer bets

It's very easy to justify bets on Liverpool's strikers given their current form.

Salah has scored eight goals in eight games this season, netting in each of his last six.

Mane has four in seven, Jota has bagged three in six Premier League games while Firmino helped himself to a couple of goals on his return to the side in Porto.

What's more, Salah has scored four in five home games against Man City while Mane has three in five at Anfield against Pep's side.

Both look backable at the prices, with Salah 8/5 anytime and Mane 23/10 anytime.

Reds corners bet appeals again

We landed this bet in Liverpool's last match when backing the Reds to have over 7.5 corners at 13/10.

They won the bet easily, racking up 11.

Liverpool's corner count in their nine matches now reads: 11, 8, 12, 11, 15, 10, 8, 11, 4.

To land the 13/10 this week, they have to register Over 5.5 corners.

That certainly seems a reasonable ask even if Trent Alexander-Arnold is absent with injury as looks the case.

Even in their heavy 4-1 home loss to City last season, Liverpool managed six corners.

READ MORE: Race to 10 goals: Salah leads the way but can the Egyptian keep up his fine form?

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