Soccer tips: Leeds vs Arsenal - Gunners look too short given poor record on the road

Mikel Arteta’s men moved up to fourth by beating West Ham but it’s their home form that has got them there and they may have have to settle for a draw at Leeds.

From bottom after three games, Arsenal moved into the top four after 17 when leapfrogging West Ham with a 2-0 win over David Moyes' side at the Emirates on Wednesday night.

That may be the highest they can achieve with the top three creating daylight but Mikel Arteta is certainly starting to win over more and more doubters.

Leeds were thrashed 7-0 at Manchester City last time, a result that left Marcelo Bielsa's side just five points clear of the drop zone. They need to bounce back quickly.

When: Saturday, December 18, 17.30 GMT

Where: Elland Road

Follow this game via our score centre

Best bets for Leeds vs Arsenal

Draw at 14/5

Emile Smith Rowe to score at 12/5

Raphinha to score at 11/5

Don't fancy any of these? Watch Pete's price boost tip.

Arsenal have clearly found something following their miserable start to the season and 29 points from the last 42 available is clearly impressive.

Multiply that points-per-game ratio over the season and they'd be hitting around the 78/79 mark.

That's easily Champions League worthy. In fact, their home form is more that of title winners.

So far, they've won seven, drawn one and lost one at the Emirates. That's exactly the same record as Premier League leaders Man City.

Gabriel Martinelli netted for Arsenal in the 2-0 home win over West Ham

However, this game is in west Yorkshire not north London and that makes the Gunners more of a riddle to solve.

Away from home they still look worryingly vulnerable.

Their eight road trips have yielded just seven points while producing a goal difference of -10. Arsenal have scored just six on their travels but conceded 16.

The two away wins came at Burnley and Leicester so perhaps they do still have it in them to beat Leeds.

It may not prove fatal but Bielsa's side are suffering from some sort of second-season syndrome and three wins from 17 outings is a poor return.

At least their home fans have had some good moments and 62.5% of Leeds' points this season have been won at Elland Road.

Last three meetings

Arsenal 2-0 Leeds (October 26, 2021)

Arsenal have already played Leeds this season, beating them in this last-16 clash in the Carabao Cup.

After a goalless first 45 minutes, substitute Calum Chambers headed the Gunners into the lead in the 55th minute before Eddie Nketiah wrapped up the win after 69.

Nketiah, who was formerly on loan at Elland Road, was part of a much-changed Arsenal side but they proved good enough to defeat a near full-strength Leeds.

Arsenal 4-2 Leeds (February 14, 2021)

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang stole the show with a hat-trick as Arsenal produced a dominant display before being pegged back.

The Gabon striker opened the scoring on 13 and added a penalty after 41 before full-back Hector Bellerin struck on the stroke of half-time to send Arsenal into the break in full control.

Aubameyang's third on 47 put Arsenal 4-0 up but Leeds wouldn't lie down and goals from Pascal Struijk (58) and Helder Costa (69) made the finish more uncomfortable than Arteta would have liked.

Leeds 0-0 Arsenal (November 20, 2020)

The last time this pair met at Elland Road, there were more red cards than goals as the game ended in a 0-0 draw.

Arsenal were outplayed and made it harder for themselves when Nicolas Pepe was sent off for sticking his head into Ezgjan Alioski's face after 51 minutes.

Leeds had a glut of chances to win the game, striking the woodwork three times late on as the Gunners somehow kept their goal intact.

Past 10 meetings

Leeds wins: 0

Draws: 2

Arsenal wins: 8

Leeds goals: 6

Arsenal goals: 25

Arsenal hard to trust away from home

Arsenal are odds on to win this, with Planet Sport Bet chalking up the Gunners at just 17/20.

On one level, that seems okay for a club sitting in a Champions League spot playing against a struggler.

But is it smart to take any side at odds-on away from home when their record on the road shows won two, drawn one, lost five, goals scored six, goals conceded 16?

The answer to that is no, even though the waters are muddied somewhat by Leeds having key men such as Kalvin Phillips and Patrick Bamford missing.

Let's stick to what we do know though. Leeds have lost just twice at home in eight Premier League matches this season.

Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds have been tough to crack at home

One of those was to Liverpool, the other was a defeat to fifth-placed West Ham when conceding in the 90th minute.

Historically, Leeds don't have a good record against Arsenal but Bielsa's Whites drew 0-0 in this fixture last year and I'm going to play the stalemate again.

The Draw is 14/5 and that looks well worth taking.

Goalscorer bets for Leeds vs Arsenal

Emile Smith Rowe continued his excellent run in front of goal by coming off the bench to score Arsenal's clincher against West Ham.

The England youngster is Arsenal's top scorer in the Premier League with six (just one less than Cristiano Ronaldo incidentally) and he has seven overall.

Emile Smith Rowe has been in the goals

Two of the last four came away from home as he netted in the 2-0 win at Leicester and the 3-2 loss at Old Trafford.

Also note that he didn't score in Arsenal's first five Premier League matches so Smith Rowe has six in his last 10 top-flight games.

He's been on the bench in recent times after coming back from injury but this looks an obvious time to play him from the start.

Take Smith Rowe to bang in another at 12/5.

For Leeds, the standout has to be Raphinha.

The Brazilian is the joint-fourth highest scorer in the Premier League following the midweek fixtures after helping himself to seven goals. He's added two more for his country.

Raphinha has been Leeds' most potent attacking weapon

He's found the net in half of Leeds' home games so 11/5 seems value, especially given Raphinha is on penalty duties too.

READ MORE: Newcastle? Barcelona? Juventus? Where next for Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang?

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