Betting preview: AC Milan vs Liverpool - Divock Origi can net again for makeshift Reds

Jurgen Klopp will rotate for the trip to Italy but that could give an opportunity for their super-sub to get on the scoresheet once more.

Liverpool and AC Milan have some mighty history in this tournament, the two giants of the game banking 13 European Cups/Champions Leagues between them.

In fact, only Real Madrid have lifted the trophy more times.

Reds fans will never forget the night in 2005 when they beat Milan to secure the fifth of their six wins, that incredible shootout victory in Istanbul coming after being 3-0 down at the break.

Milan took revenge in the 2007 final and need another win on Tuesday night to have a chance of securing second spot behind Jurgen Klopp's men in Group B.

When: Tuesday, December 07, 20.00 GMT

Where: San Siro

Follow this game via our score centre

Best bets for AC Milan v Liverpool

The Draw at 14/5

Divock Origi to score at 13/5

Liverpool have strolled through what looked like a genuine 'Group of Death' by winning five out of five so far.

Their 15-point haul is 10 clear of Porto in second place while AC Milan and Atletico Madrid have four each.

It means second spot is wide open and a draw in the Porto v Atletico game in Portugal will allow Milan to pinch second spot with just seven points.

Franck Kessie and Milan will hope to nick second place
Franck Kessie and Milan will hope to nick second place

The Italians banked just one point from their opening four games but gave themselves hope with a 1-0 victory away to Atletico last time.

With Liverpool beating Porto on the same night, the door has suddenly opened for the Rossoneri and this looks a great chance for them to walk right through it.

We made the argument that, despite having already qualified as group winners, Liverpool would be trying to beat Porto last time due to the hefty £2m+ prize money on offer just for winning a group game.

That applies again here, of course, but there are other considerations.

It was easier to win a 'dead rubber' at home and it came between Anfield outings against Arsenal and Southampton which the Reds won.

This is a third straight away game and forms part of a December schedule that features nine matches.

Liverpool have started the month in fine form by winning at Everton and Wolves but Klopp is now seriously having to manage his squad and this is a golden opportunity to give the vast majority of the first team a rest.

Last three meetings

Liverpool 3-2 AC Milan (September 15, 2021)

Liverpool looked to be cruising when, already 1-0 up after Fikayo Tomori deflected Trent Alexander-Arnold's cross into his own net, they were awarded a penalty with less than 15 minutes on the clock.

But Mo Salah's spot-kick was saved by Mike Magnan and the Reds were hit with two sucker punches, conceding twice in a minute just before half-time, Ante Rebic and Brahim Diaz shocking Anfield.

Klopp's side needed just three minutes to level it up after the break when Salah fired home and they deservedly banked victory when skipper Jordan Henderson's excellent strike on 69 gave them a deserved if rather unnecessarily tense win.

Liverpool 1-2 AC Milan (May 23, 2007)

Two years on from the Miracle of Istanbul, Carlo Ancelotti's Milan gained revenge over Rafa Benitez's Reds in the final in Athens.

Liverpool had some early chances but Milan went in front on the stroke of half-time after Andrea Pirlo's free-kick on the edge of the area deflected off Filippo Inzaghi's shoulder and past the stranded Pepe Reina.

Inzaghi latched onto Kaka's pass to slot home Milan's second with eight minutes left and, although Dirk Kuyt headed home after 88, there was to be no miracle comeback this time for Liverpool.

Liverpool 3-3 AC Milan aet (May 25, 2005)

Liverpool produced one of football's most sensational comebacks to beat Milan in a penalty shootout after fighting back from 3-0 down at half-time.

Milan took the lead in the very first minute via Paulo Maldini and tore the Reds into shreds in the first half, Hernan Crespo scoring after 39 and 44 to send the Italians into the break in complete control.

Liverpool fans feared a hammering but in six crazy second-half minutes they were level thanks to Steven Gerrard's header (54), a thumping shot from Vladimir Smicer (56) and a third from Xavi Alonso (59), who blasted in the rebound after his own penalty was saved.

Jerzy Dudek performed heroics to keep it at 3-3 and the Polish goalkeeper then saved Andrei Shevchenko's penalty in the shootout to give the Reds an extraordinary victory.

Past meetings

Liverpool wins: 1

Draws: 1

AC Milan wins: 1

Liverpool goals: 7

AC Milan goals: 7

Milan favourites with Reds set to field weakened team

The prices for Tuesday night would be very different if both sides were going eyeballs out for the win.

But with Milan desperate for the three points and Liverpool likely to give squad players a run out, the bookies have framed their odds accordingly.

It means Milan are 21/20 favourites with Planet Sport Bet to get the win while Liverpool are the 21/10 underdogs. The Draw is 14/5.

A guess at a Liverpool line-up would see a back four of Kostas Tsimikas, Neco Williams, Ibrahima Konate and Joe Gomez, a midfield of James Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and youngster Tyler Morton and a front three of Takumi Minamino, Divock Origi and one other.

Ibrahima Konate is likely to get a start
Ibrahima Konate is likely to get a start

So, perhaps aided by reinforcements off the bench, is that team good enough to go to Milan and win?

Firstly, a note on Milan's league form.

They're currently top of Serie A with 38 points from 16 games after 12 wins and two draws.

In other words, this is a team on the up again after several years in the doldrums.

Their latest form shows a 3-0 win at Genoa last Wednesday and a 2-0 home success over Salernitana on the weekend.

They've kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches although they did lose 3-1 to Sassuolo in the San Siro at the end of November which hints at vulnerabilities.

Milan need the win but Liverpool won't just be going through the motions. That's simply not in their DNA and they lose very few games - just one in 22 so far this season.

That leads me to the Draw and it looks a decent price at 14/5.

Goalscorer Bets for AC Milan v Liverpool

Liverpool's remarkable record of scoring at least two goals in their previous 18 games finally came to an end against Wolves.

But they did still find the scoresheet thanks to a last-gasp winner from super-sub Divock Origi. And it's the Belgian I'm going to turn to here.

Divock Origi can net another European goal
Divock Origi can net another European goal

Origi has a special place in the hearts of Liverpool fans for his heroics at vital moments and I'm going to back the man who netted the clincher in the 2019 Champions League final to add another European goal to his collection here.

Klopp wishes he could give him more game time and this is the perfect opportunity.

When Origi does get minutes on the pitch, he tends to make the most of them. It may come as a surprise that he's scored four goals in his last eight appearances. Two of those were in the Carabao Cup but the latest two were in the Premier League.

He pulled a late goal back in the 3-2 loss at West Ham and popped up with the injury-time winner at Molineux on Saturday.

Even before he grabbed the winner, he looked sharp when coming off the bench against Wolves so back Origi to score at 13/5.

Origi's haul of Champions League goals includes his strike in the final against Spurs and two in the memorable 4-0 win over Barcelona in that season's semi-final second leg.

READ MORE: Bookies appear to write off Chelsea's title chances after they suffer Hammer blow.

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