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Does Raheem Sterling’s move to Chelsea make him more likely to become the Premier League top scorer?

Raheem Sterling looks set to join Thomas Tuchel at Stamford Bridge, but will an increase in influence and game-time mean a rise up the goalscoring charts?

Raheem Sterling's proposed move from Manchester City to Chelsea threatens to shake up the goalscorer betting market, with the England forward currently a massive outsider at 35/1 with Planet Sport Bet to top the charts in 2022/23.
The City forward only started 23 games last season but still finished with a very respectable 13 goals.

The signings of Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez threatened to reduce his influence even further, hence his odds.

It follows therefore, that with more game-time at Chelsea, he will improve on his 2021/22 output and maybe even threaten Mo Salah, Harry Kane and Haaland at the top of the scoring charts. Or does it? Planet Sport takes a closer look at the stats.

Chelsea's forward woes

When we talk about Chelsea's forward woes, the name that immediately springs to mind is Timo Werner.

The German striker's first season in the Premier League saw him make 35 appearances and score just six goals, with 18 big chances going begging.
Much was made of Werner's disallowed goals - he had seen 16 goals chalked off by VAR by early October 2021 - and while his offside tally was high in his first season, it was by no means the worst in the division.
Werner was caught offside 27 times in the league, less than Jamie Vardy (36) and Sadio Mane (31) and the same as Marcus Rashford.

The arrival of Romelu Lukaku in 2021/22 saw Werner's time split between a central striker and a wing role and he supplied four goals from 21 appearances for Chelsea, with 15 of them being starts. But while his output decreased, his potency went the other way, with only three big chances missed.

Failed Lukaku return

Werner's first-season woes led to Romelu Lukaku being brought back from Inter Milan for close to £100million. However, the Belgium striker was unable to replicate his previous two seasons in Serie A, which had seen him net 23 and then 24 goals for I Nerazzurri.
A return of eight goals in 26 appearances has seen him shipped off back to Milan, never to be spoken of again.

Will Sterling flourish at Chelsea?

The worrying thing for Sterling and Chelsea is the paucity of chances created for Lukaku last term - the former Manchester United striker missed just three big opportunities.

Kai Havertz was actually the player who was most likely to find himself in goalscoring positions.

The German netted eight in 29 appearances but also saw 12 big chances slip by.

Sterling started 23 games for the champions, appearing in seven more from the bench and tucked away 13 chances. He also missed 13 big chances, suggesting he will struggle to even match last season's output if the Blues don't improve their supply line.

The potential addition of Raphinha may go some way to remedy that - the Brazilian created ten big chances in 2021/22 at Leeds.

However, at odds of between 66/1 and 80/1 Raphinha might even be a more attractive option than Sterling for the Golden Boot, certainly when each-way comes into play.

The 25-year-old scored 11 goals for a struggling Leeds side last season, with only six big chances missed.

By way of contrast, in Sterling's most prolific Premier League campaign - 2019/20 - he scored 20 but also saw 19 big chances go begging.

Is he really going to get as many sights of goal in 2022/23? It's doubtful.

READ MORE: 11 Premier League-era shirt sponsors that no longer exist, including Mita Copiers and Wonga

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