The Analyst: Newcastle should pick up points under Howe but for bookings rather than wins
- Andy Schooler
- 26 November 2021
Andy Schooler drags out the key stats that punters need for their Premier League card bets and believes there will be little change at Newcastle under Howe - at least when it comes to discipline.
Newcastle have the second-worst disciplinary record in the Premier League this season but anyone expecting them to improve under Eddie Howe may be disappointed.
Under Howe, Bournemouth finished in the bottom five of the Fair Play table when they were relegated in 2019/20, while a recall for Fabian Schar will also keep the referees busy - Schar has been booked in 24 of his 67 Premier League appearances.
The Magpies have hit 20+ booking points in 10 of their 12 games and face an Arsenal side this weekend that have only seen more cards than their opponents in three of their 12 outings.
Chelsea and Liverpool are the joint cleanest sides, which may be a reflection of the possession stats, with the teams sitting second and third in that particular table.
A standout fixture for punters interested in the cards markets is Leeds' trip to Brighton on Saturday. Marcelo Bielsa's side, despite sitting fourth in the possession stats, lead the way in the 'most cards' market, while the Seagulls have received more cards than anyone else.
Card figures are actually up considerably on last season, suggesting the return of fans has had a major part to play.
This season, that average is up at 3.72.
In this piece, we look at the card figures behind teams and players in England's top flight, but let's start with a look at the other key men in these markets - the referees.
Which Premier League refs are the strictest?
It's fairly early days - most referees are still in single figures for games - but so far Australian import Jarred Gillett has proved the most card-happy official of those to have taken charge of multiple games.
However, his six yellows-per-game average has come across just two matches. A better data sample comes from second-placed Peter Bankes - 29 yellows shown in five games.
Kevin Friend, Darren England (pictured above) and David Coote are the other officials averaging more than five yellows per game - each has also shown at least one red.
Given the pretty small data sample available, it's also worth looking back at last season to get a longer-term picture.
Paul Tierney was last season's strictest Premier League referee. He's currently just above the average with 3.78 cards per game. His figure across 2020/21 was 3.9.
However, this season, he's below the league average, having shown 3.38 yellows per game and no reds.
Which Premier League refs are the most lenient?
Despite having shown two red cards, Jonathan Moss claims the most lenient honour thus far. He's produced just 16 yellows in his eight games.
Andy Madley (2.4) and Martin Atkinson (2.44) are the others to have a yellows-per-game average below 3.
While they have only taken charge of a handful of matches, it's worth pointing out all three were below the league average last season too so they have earned a fairly long-standing reputation for leniency.
Which Premier League teams and players are best for cards?
Arsenal - booking points and player cards
Arsenal are a team long remembered for having something of a chequered history in terms of cards, going back to the days of Patrick Vieira.
One thing often thrown at Arsene Wenger was his inability to rein in his 'bad boys' but that's not been an issue for Mikel Arteta this season.
Some of that is undoubtedly due to Granit Xhaka's long-term injury. Sent off at Manchester City early in the season, he's been a regular card collector in the Premier League and his return cannot come soon enough for card-backing punters!
Booking points
20+ booking points - 6 of 12
30+ booking points - 3 of 12
Most cards - 3 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Albert Sambi Lokonga - 4 times
Aston Villa - booking points and player cards
Villa's John McGinn was the Premier League's most-carded player in 2020/21 with 12 and the Scottish midfield terrier is already up and running with four this season.
He's helped Villa hit 20+ booking points more often than not this term. Whether that changes under Steven Gerrard's stewardship remains to be seen.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 9 of 12
30+ booking points - 6 of 12
Most cards - 3 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Brentford - booking points and player cards
It's been a pretty calm Brentford side we've seen so far in the Premier League - hardly a surprise to those who watched them in the Championship.
One potential angle for punters is to follow midfielder Frank Onyeka. He was carded in 11 of his 39 starts for Midtjylland last season, following on from 12 in 32 in 2019/20. Despite making only seven starts, Onyeka is already in the top six for fouls conceded in the Premier League so should be expected to pick up more bookings in the near future.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 6 of 12
30+ booking points - 4 of 12
Most cards - 3 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Christian Norgaard - 4
Brighton - booking points and player cards
Brighton have seen more yellow cards (32) than any other team across the first 12 games of the campaign.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 10 of 12
30+ booking points - 5 of 12
Most cards - 6 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Adam Lallana - 4
Burnley - booking points and player cards
Burnley's card figures are pretty high but speak to Sean Dyche and he'll tell you referees often buy in too much to his side's reputation.
Jurgen Klopp was particularly critical of Burnley's approach earlier this season and it could certainly be an interesting game when the pair meet again in February.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 10 of 12
30+ booking points - 5 of 12
Most cards - 6 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
James Tarkowski - 5
Ashley Westwood - 5
Josh Brownhill - 4
Chelsea - booking points and player cards
Chelsea famously tightened up under Thomas Tuchel last season, improving so much they went on to become European champions.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 3 of 12
30+ booking points - 2 of 12
Most cards - 3 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Crystal Palace - Booking points and player cards
Palace's style of play has changed significantly under Patrick Vieira and their discipline stats are on the rise.
They are committing almost a foul more per game than last season, reflecting the fact they are happier to press rather than drop deep as they often did under Roy Hodgson. They remain in the middle of the fair-play table, however.
One player potentially going under the bookies' radar is Tyrick Mitchell. Only Everton's Allan has made more tackles than the full-back - always one of the best positions in terms of picking up cards - this season so Mitchell may find it hard to keep out of referees' notebooks.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 8 of 12
30+ booking points - 4 of 12
Most cards - 3 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Joachim Andersen - 3
Everton - booking points and player cards
Booking points
20+ booking points - 6 of 12
30+ booking points - 3 of 12
Most cards - 4 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Richarlison - 5
Leeds - Booking points and player cards
'Dirty Leeds' are your best friends when it comes to the 20+ booking points market - they've seen at least two cards in a league-high 10 of their opening 12 games.
They've also been handy to have onside in the 'most cards' market, landing that bet more often than not, one of only two sides to do so.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 10 of 12
30+ booking points - 6 of 12
Most cards - 7 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Liam Cooper - 4
Leicester - booking points and player cards
The Foxes have been arguably the biggest disappointment in this season's Premier League in terms of results - few would have predicted them to be in the bottom half after 12 games.
To be fair, injuries have hit hard and it's notable that two of those affected, Jonny Evans and Wesley Fofana, were last season's most-carded players.
Perhaps Brendan Rodgers needs to tell his players to get stuck in a bit more…
Booking points
20+ booking points - 5 of 12
30+ booking points - 3 of 12
Most cards - 4 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Liverpool - booking points and player cards
Here's a remarkable statistic - in every one of Jurgen Klopp's full seasons at Anfield, Liverpool have finished top of the Premier League's fair-play table.
And, sure enough, in 2021/22, no-one has received fewer cards than the Reds - just 14 in their opening 12 games.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 4 of 12
30+ booking points - 2 of 12
Most cards - 2 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Fabinho - 3
Manchester City - booking points and player cards
Like Liverpool under Klopp, City's discipline has been pretty good under Pep Guardiola, albeit not up to their north-west rivals' level.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 6 of 12
30+ booking points - 3 of 12
Most cards - 6 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Manchester United - booking points and player cards
United became a real cards team under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer so it will be interesting to see if things change following his departure from Old Trafford.
Only the relegated duo of Sheffield United and Fulham saw more cards last season, while just five sides have received more in the current campaign. The Red Devils have proved a great team to back in the most cards market - they've landed in seven times out of 12 with no side having a better record.
They have card regulars too - Paul Pogba, Fred, Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire (last season's most-carded player at Old Trafford) have long been short prices in the 'to be carded' market.
The Shaw-Maguire-Fred treble has already landed twice this season (against Liverpool and Spurs).
Booking points
20+ booking points - 7 of 12
30+ booking points - 6 of 12
Most cards - 7 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Harry Maguire - 4
Newcastle - booking points and player cards
With 31 yellows and one red already received this season, only Brighton have worse discipline than Newcastle so far this season.
Not surprisingly, that's reflected in their card-related betting stats. They've hit 20+ booking points in 10 of their 12 games (no side has a higher ratio) and have seen more cards than their opponents as often as the have not.
One player worth noting is Fabian Schar. He returned to the starting line-up in Eddie Howe's first game in charge. The Swiss defender wasn't booked but he was in his two other appearances this season - something that sums up his time in the Premier League. He's been carded in 24 of his 67 PL appearances.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 10 of 12
30+ booking points - 6 of 12
Most cards - 6 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Jamaal Lascelles - 4
Norwich - booking points and player cards
As already shown, relegated teams made a big impression in terms of cards last season and Norwich are beginning to make inroads on that front too.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 8 of 12
30+ booking points - 5 of 12
Most cards - 6 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Southampton - booking points and player cards
Build-a-bet fans should note the fact that Southampton have been hitting 20+ booking points regularly this season.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 9 of 12
30+ booking points - 3 of 12
Most cards - 2 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Mohammed Salisu - 4
Tottenham - booking points and player cards
Antonio Conte is a boss who likes his centre forward to put himself about - Diego Costa and Alvaro Morata were card regulars in his Chelsea days - so perhaps Harry Kane could be one to follow in the coming weeks. He's certainly got a bit to prove after a poor start to the season.
An under-the-radar card play could be Bryan Gil, if and when he gets a chance. The winger was carded in six of 26 La Liga starts for Eibar last season and in four of his 14 appearances for Sevilla in 2019/20. The Spaniard has already been booked on multiple occasions in the Europa Conference League for Spurs.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 7 of 12
30+ booking points - 4 of 12
Most cards - 4 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Oliver Skipp - 5
Cristian Romero - 4
Watford - booking points and player cards
A round of applause for Watford's Emmanuel Dennis, who was the first man to five Premier League cards this season, thus earning himself a suspension after just nine appearances.
He's now on six - more than any other Premier League player - and also leads the fouls table so the Nigerian is clearly one to keep an eye on going forward.
Team-mate Juraj Kucka is second on that particular list - he had eight cards in 28 Serie A starts last season, plus six in 22 the season before, and has also been carded regularly for the Czech national team.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 9 of 12
30+ booking points - 7 of 12
Most cards - 4 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Emmanuel Dennis - 6
West Ham - Booking points and player cards
David Moyes' teams have always known how to get up for the fight but his high-flying West Ham have managed to keep things in check so far - they've collected just 14 cards this season, putting them level with Liverpool and Chelsea in terms of good behaviour.
Moyes has made few changes to his Premier League team this season and it will be worth keeping an eye on them in terms of suspensions as players reach four bookings - remember the card 'amnesty' comes after 19 games.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 6 of 12
30+ booking points - 1 of 12
Most cards - 5 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Declan Rice - 4
Wolves - booking points and player cards
As was the case last season, Wolves are a pretty average side in terms of card collection - they are already in mid-table in the fair-play league which is where they finished in 2020/21.
Booking points
20+ booking points - 6 of 12
30+ booking points - 4 of 12
Most cards - 3 of 12
Player(s) with most cards
Ruben Neves - 4
