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State of Origin tips: New South Wales fighting to keep series alive against Queensland at cursed MSG

New South Wales head to Melbourne with the ambition of keeping the State of Origin series alive when they take on Queensland (Wednesday, 1105 BST).

NSW have revenge on their mind after being well and truly mauled in the first game of the series.

Queensland powered to a 38-10 win in Sydney as they made the most of an early Joseph Suaalii sending off.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow scored three of the six tries as his side ran riot in the State of Origin opener.

Question is, can NSW respond and take the series to the third and final game?

 

The venue itself should give them plenty of hope considering Queensland have a dire record at the MCG, winning just one State of Origin match at the famous stadium.

However, the Maroons will fancy their chances of breaking that run as they look to seal their third straight series win under the formidable Billy Slater.

If Queensland are to reign supreme, expect Tabuai-Fidow to play another big role.

Since making his Origin debut back in 2021, the Dolphins star has been ruthless, bagging eight tries in just five appearances.

The 22-year-old has scored at least one try in every Origin game he has played in, and we’re backing that trend to continue.

It may sound like we’ve already given up on NSW but trust me, we haven’t.

Despite losing the opener, there were still many positives, including the kicking game of Mitch Moses and some fine attacking moments from Latrell Mitchell. 

The Blues were a man down from the eighth minute onwards, yet they were able to keep the margin to just 10 points as late as the 65th minute.

With a full team at their disposal, there’s no reason why NSW couldn’t pose a threat in Melbourne.

We also expect the match to produce far fewer points should the contest remain a 13 on 13 encounter.

With that in mind, our suggested bets are total points under 34.5 at around the EVS mark. Tabuai-Fidow to score is another fine bet.

With regards to the winner, we’re leaning towards Queensland who offer good value at around the 21/20 mark.

 

Suggested bets

Total points – under 34.5

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to score a try

Queensland to win

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