England have been pretty impressive at the T20 World Cup but at 8/15 they look too short for Wednesday's semi-final against a mightily efficient New Zealand.
Regular readers will know we tipped the Black Caps pre-tournament at 13/2 and they've done everything required of them so far.
They did lose their opening match to Pakistan, effectively leaving them playing knockout cricket ever since. But they've duly delivered, winning four matches on the spin.
When where and how to watch England vs New Zealand
When: Wednesday November 10, 2pm GMT
Where: Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi, UAE
How to watch in the UK: Live on Sky Sports Cricket and Main Event
New Zealand have a settled, well-balanced side and this looks a good time for them to be playing England.
The 50-over world champions, who famously won that title with a super-over success over New Zealand in 2019, came into the tournament without both Ben Stokes and Jofra Archer. They then lost Archer's replacement, Tymal Mills, to injury and he's since been joined on the sidelines by opener Jason Roy.
Strength in depth is certainly something England do have but juggling the team around at this stage, particularly after such a strong start to the tournament, is far from ideal.
Despite struggling for runs, Jonny Bairstow may well return to the XI in place of Roy, although there's also the option of moving Dawid Malan up the order. In the bowling ranks, Mark Wood became the third-choice pace option in defeat to South Africa at the weekend but he went for 47 off his four wicketless overs so David Willey will surely at least be considered as an alternative.
England's ability to bat deep could be key in this game and so how Trent Boult (11 wickets so far) and Tim Southee (7) perform may well decide the outcome.
The New Zealand seamers both have an economy rate below six per over so far in the tournament and if they can keep the brakes on the English too, the Black Caps will be right in this game.
New Zealand look a real spot of value
The sides haven't met since their late-2019 series in New Zealand, England winning it 3-2 thanks to another super-over success in the deciding game.
The odds don't suggest things will be a close here but, to me, New Zealand look a real spot of value at 6/4.
The margins can be pretty fine in T20 cricket and they are a side with few weaknesses. I'd certainly expect them to keep this closer than the prices suggest.
Pressure may be too much for Buttler
In the sub-markets, Moeen Ali top-scored for England against South Africa the other day and may be worth another look at 5/1 in the same market.
Given Roy's absence and Bairstow's lack of form, Ali could easily bat at three again, although that will look more likely if England are needing to chase a decent total, as was the case at the weekend.
Jos Buttler is clearly the right favourite (2/1) given his form - only Babar Azam has scored more runs in the tournament and the Lancashire star has top-scored in three of five games thus far.
However, there's extra pressure on his shoulders with regular opening partner Roy out and Ali has the ability to capitalise, if given the chance.
Of course, you could go against me completely and back England to win and Buttler to top-score for Eoin Morgan's side. The good news is that there is now a touch more value in that, with Planet Sport Bet having price-boosted it to 5/1 (from 4s).
Mitchell looks over-priced for New Zealand
In the New Zealand top run-scorer market, Daryl Mitchell looks the one who is overpriced.
The Black Caps have shared the runs around much more evenly than England, with Martin Guptill their top scorer thanks largely to his 93 against Scotland. However, his second-best score is only 28 and he's only landed top-scorer honours once in five games.
Mitchell, on the other hand, has hit top spot twice.
He usually gets a start - he's made double figures in every match - and his best figures have come in the biggest games, with scores of 49 against India and 27 against Pakistan.
Not too many openers are offered at 5/1 in this market in T20 cricket and the right-hander looks a decent play.
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