T20 World Cup final betting preview: New Zealand a tempting price but too much depends on the toss

Too early to back the Black Caps but whether they bat first or second, Sodhi can continue his excellent record against Australia.

As always seems to be the case in a big knockout game at a global tournament, New Zealand are a tempting price at 11/8.

They now won five in a row at the T20 World Cup having shown they can win from almost any position with their stunning finish against England on Wednesday.

Best bets for Australia vs New Zealand

New Zealand to have the highest opening partnership - 21/20

Ish Sodhi top New Zealand wicket-taker - 10/3

Glenn Phillips top New Zealand run-scorer - 9/2

When, where and how to watch

When: Sunday, November 14, 14.00 GMT

Where: Dubai International Stadium, Dubai, UAE

How to watch in the UK: Live on Sky Sports Cricket and Main Event

Toss looks key to the outcome

Devon Conway about to punch his bat and break his hand. New Zealand vs England Nov21

Our semi-final preview mentioned how well-balanced New Zealand look, although one blow came in bizarre circumstances the other night - Devon Conway breaking his hand by punching his bat in frustration as he left the field.

He'll now miss the World Cup final. Silly boy.

Still, I'm not convinced that's had much effect on the market.

What will, however, is the toss.

Ten of the last 11 games in Dubai have been won by the side chasing and whoever wins the toss here looks sure to bowl first.

With the coin appearing to play such a large part in the outcomes at this venue, I'm put off backing the Black Caps at this stage.

I will, however, side with them in the highest opening partnership market, another in which they are the odds-against outsiders.

Daryl Mitchell T20 New Zealand vs England semi-final Nov21

Martin Guptill and Daryl Mitchell have put together consistent stands at this tournament with five of their six first-wicket partnerships hitting the 24-36 range. Only against England (4) have they failed to get a start.

At this point, it's also worth mentioning their opening-stand runs line has been set at 20.5 with the stats clearly liking the overs at 5/6.

Australia have been much more hit and miss - and notably they've struggled against the elite teams.

Three times in six games David Warner and Aaron Finch have failed to make it past 7, although it would be unfair to also point out they've managed to pass 50 twice.

Those opening stands of 1, 7 and 4 have come against Pakistan, England and South Africa - the three best teams the Aussies have faced - and of particular concern to them will be how they failed to deal with England's Chris Woakes here in Dubai.

Woakes and Chris Jordan tore into their top order and Trent Boult and Tim Southee will be keen to get the new ball in their hands given they have the ability to move it sideways, even in the UAE.

Back Sodhi to continue his excellent record against Australia

Ish Sodhi New Zealand 2019

That said, I'm a little curious to see if Kane Williamson is prepared to give Ish Sodhi a go early on given Aaron Finch's struggles against leg-spin - he's been dismissed seven times by a leg spinner this year.

Sodhi also has an excellent record against Australia in this format. His strike rate drops from above 21 to below 16 against the Aussies, while he's also been more economical (7.38 vs 8.00).

He took 13 wickets in five games against their trans-Tasman rivals earlier this year, earning the player of the series award as the Black Caps claimed a 3-2 victory.

While clearly that series was played in somewhat different conditions, Sodhi will also have happy memories of his last T20 World Cup appearance against Australia - he took 4-14 in four overs in India in 2016.

With nine wickets so far this tournament, Sodhi is still in with a shout of landing our top wicket-taker outright bet and is worth a try at 10/3 to be New Zealand's top bowler in this match - an award he's won outright once and shared twice so far.

Phillips a tempting price to be New Zealand's top bat

Glenn Phillips Gloucestershire Jun21

Finally, Conway's absence will mean a reshuffle in the New Zealand batting order which leaves Glenn Phillips looking a tempting price in the top-bat market.

Tim Seifert will replace Conway behind the stumps but he's unlikely to slip straight in at four.

That job seems likely to fall to Phillips, who is 9/2 to be his side's top run-scorer.

It's one he's done before, notably scoring 108 against the West Indies from such a position 12 months ago.

In this tournament, he's twice passed 30 (from four innings), winning this market against Namibia, so he's clearly not in bad touch.

He's got real six-hitting ability - no-one had hit more in all T20 cricket in 2021 coming into this event, while his pre-tournament career strike-rate of 149.7 put him in the top 10 in that particular list.

His role may have to be tweaked a little but his natural game is to attack and at 9/2 he looks a spot of value given where he's set to bat.