McGregor has previously had reigns at featherweight and lightweight and is now targeting welterweight champion Kamaru Usman.
The Notorious has tasted back-to-back losses against Dustin Poirier and is currently recovering from a broken leg.
"If Conor wants the most chance of success, I would say fight a guy who is a little below championship level," Rogan said on a recent episode of "Hotboxin' with Mike Tyson." "Maybe a guy on the come-up, who Conor has an advantage over, but it's still a competitive fight. Give him a test, but don't put him in there right away with Usman."
The UFC analyst and commentator thinks McGregor needs to do something similar to his comeback in January 2020, where he fought Donald Cerrone.
"I think, honestly, when boxers come back from a long layoff and they come back from a loss, one thing that boxers do that's smart is they have a tune-up fight," Rogan said.
"I think there's a reason why they've been using tune-up fights forever like astute managers. They know you've got to knock the dust off and you'll be better in the next performance. To jump right into a Dustin Poirier or right into, name it, Michael Chandler, like right into a guy who's the elite of the elite.
"I think what Conor needs to do is what Conor wants to do. If Conor thinks he can go up and fight Usman and make a big payday, try to become a three-division champion, he should do that.
"He should do whatever he wants to do, but if I was like a manager to him, and I said what's the best path to success, the best path to success is like the 'Cowboy' fight. No disrespect to 'Cowboy,' but that fight turned out to be kind of like a warm-up fight."
While he may not be set to return until fall, McGregor seems intent on fighting at 170lbs next.