Hopefully you managed to find a bookmaker offering three places on Flower of Scotland, who came third at Kelso last weekend and had been available at 12/1 at the time of writing. The handy hurdler was heavily backed and ended up with a starting price of just 5/1, but did reach as low as 4/1.
For Saturday's Lincoln Handicap, I have used a range of trends to narrow down the field and then some form analysis to find a selection or two:
- 19/19 - Aged six or younger
- 18/19 - Carried 9st-4lb or less in weight
- 16/19 - Had won over at least a mile before
- 15/19 - Had won between 2-4 times before
- 14/19 - Drawn in stall nine or higher
- 14/19 - Having their first run of the flat season
- 13/19 - Winning distance - one length or more
- 12/19 - Unplaced favourites
- 11/19 - Aged four years old
- 11/19 - Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 10/19 - Officially rated between 95-100
- 10/19 - Placed first or second last time out
- 9/19 - Had raced at Doncaster before
- 8/19 - Came from the top three in the betting
- 8/19 - Won last time out
- 7/19 - Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
- 5/19 - Placed horses from stall 12 (one winner)
- 4/19 - Placed horses from stall 16 (one winner)
Using the trends above the field is narrowed down to just four horses: Al Mubhir, Croupier, Jimi Hendrix and Wanees.
Suggested bets: Jimi Hendrix and Wanees (both each-way)
I employed some additional trends and was still unable to narrow the choices down, so I studied form and decided I cannot have Al Mubhir at his price of 4/1 on the basis of form. Moreover, he has just had a wind operation, which could benefit him, but we do not know how the horse will react. I therefore rule Al Mubhir out as 4/1 is a ludicrously short price for a horse which has only won a single race previously.
Croupier is promising and is likely to improve through the season, but he has no form on soft ground and looking at his breeding his sire is more suited to good or faster going. So I have also ruled out Croupier, but if he does handle the going then I expect him to go close.
This leaves Jimi Hendrix and Wanees and I suggest backing both each way with bookmakers offering additional places. Both will handle the going and both ran well in the big 30-runner field that contested the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot last June, finishing third and sixth respectively
I expect both to be mid-division before making a move entering the final furlong and hopefully will continue the good run of the selections in these trends analysis articles.