Epsom Derby betting tip: Trends suggest Military Order can steal march on Auguste Rodin
- Andrew of Fiosrach
- 2 June 2023
The biggest Classic of the Flat racing calendar has led analyst Andrew of Fiosrach to run his trends data over the competitive field lining up for the 2023 Epsom Derby.
1.30 Epsom: Betfred Derby - 1 mile 4 furlongs (Group 1) (3yo)
Fourteen runners go to post in this year's Derby and that will undoubtedly cause traffic issues coming round Tattenham Corner and down the hill.
Auguste Rodin is the early market leader, but it would be no surprise to see Arrest gather more support as Frankie Dettori looks to mark his Epsom Classic farewell with a popular victory.
Like most Derby winners I am sure this year's winner will need some luck in running.
Interestingly, the trends ruled out some of the horses at the front of the market including the favourite Auguste Rodin, Arrest and Passenger.
These represent three of the first four in the betting and were ruled out as follows:
This left a shortlist of four runners: Military Order, Sprewell, Waipiro and San Antonio.
If Auguste Rodin returns to his two-year-old form then he is definitely a player, but on the trends the recommendation is to back Military Order.
Suggested bet: Military Order to win the Epsom Derby (13:30pm Saturday)
Military Order hails from the all powerful Godolphin string, is trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by Champion Jockey William Buick.
He won the Lingfield Derby trial beating Waipiro into second, with that race run on the all-weather track due to the turf track being unfit to race following a deluge.
After the win at Lingfield Buick commented that Military Order was a "well-balanced horse" and that is a massive plus for the camber at Epsom which pulls horses towards the rail coming down the hill.
Sprewell was very impressive when winning the Derby trial at Leopardstown and that has been won by several impressive Derby winners over the years, such as High Chapparal, Sinndar and Galileo.
Sprewell won the race well and ran clear of the field in the final furlong. Although on breeding I am not convinced that he will fully see out the trip.
Waipiro was second behind Military Order and will stay the trip, but he has only won one race and would need to find nine pounds of improvement to win here.
He may improve enough to run into a place, and his stamina could see him run past tiring rivals.
San Antonio is one of three Aidan O'Brien entries and has won his two starts this season including the Dee Stakes at Chester last time.
On breeding there is stamina on the dam's side but doubts about the sire's side. He stayed over a mile and two furlongs, but there may be a question about the final two furlongs.
Others are likely to improve further but if he stays, he could have each-way place claims at very decent odds.
