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Andy Gibson's Cheltenham verdict: Fallout from the National Hunt Chase

Continuing his review of the Cheltenham Festival, racing analyst Andy Gibson reflects on the performances of the leading contenders in the National Hunt Chase and assesses their future prospects.

The biggest point of interest post-race was whether or not Mahler Mission would have been caught by Gaillard Du Mesnil if not for falling at the second last fence. 

My immediate reaction after the race was to consider how much work the pace-setter had done from the far side and down the hill to the point of his departure.
I think Patrick Mullins mentioned that he thought there would be a price to pay for that effort and I concur with his view. The question, of course, is how much of a price would he have paid.

Gaillard Du Mesnil

Using a handheld stopwatch, the long-time leader was around 1.26 seconds in front of the eventual winner with four to jump and 2.31 seconds clear at the next. On take-off at the second last Mahler Mission's lead over the eventual winner had been slightly reduced to just under two seconds.
From two out to the winning line the winner made up slightly under 1.5 seconds on Chemical Energy, turning a 0.79 deficit into a 0.67 advantage at the line. Mahler Mission had gone much harder than Chemical Energy so it is certainly possible that he would have folded more quickly than the eventual runner-up.
If we used the gradual decrease in the gap between Chemical Energy and the winner from two out to the line as our guide, then the obvious conclusion to draw would be that Mahler Mission would have been caught by the favourite.
As mentioned earlier the unfortunate faller had endured a tougher final circuit than Chemical Energy up to the point of his departure, so could be said to have been more likely to fold more quickly.
What I would suggest with more confidence is that if Gaillard Du Mesnil had not prevailed he would have probably failed to get up by a narrow margin.

Chemical Energy

This was a tremendous effort and one that only succumbed to the very late challenge of the favourite, and Chemical Energy all but maintained his advantage over the eventual winner from two out to the final fence.
It was only in the final 100 yards that the favourite was able to join him before surging clear in the final moments of the race, and Chemical Energy's chances would have been more obvious if competing on better ground.

Mister Coffey

Maybe Mister Coffey would have finished closer but for being ridden more positively compared with the two horses to finish in front of him. Whatever the reasons, he finished a tired horse and failed to convince that he had quite seen out the trip.
This was his first try at the distance and one would imagine he will be kept to an extended three miles in future.

Tenzing

This was his first try over this extended trip and one would have to question whether Tenzing lasted home on the day, although I don't like to come to hard and fast conclusions based on one performance.
Either way he will clearly have his stamina to prove if trying this sort of trip again in the future.

Mahler Mission

It was most disappointing to see Mahler Mission come down at the last as we would have found out much more about him and the favourite if he had stood up.
I would suggest that whichever way the result would have turned out, there would have been very little between him and the favourite if he had remained upright.
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