Andy Gibson race analysis: Review of the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton
- Andy Gibson
- 3 March 2023
Horse racing analyst Andy Gibson takes a retropective look at one of last week's big races, using his expertise to examine the performance and prospects of the leading contenders.
Our Power
Compared to the chase won by Solo, this was a strongly run affair before it became a stamina slog in the home straight. This comparison maybe helps to understand why Our Power was outpaced off the home bend before staying on strongly again in the closing stages.
He performed as if a stronger test of stamina were needed and reportedly heads for the Grand National next. He has been raised six pounds for this success, which is understandable, given the 11 lengths back to the third horse.
Flegmatik
I would suggest that Flegmatic should go down as an unfortunate loser of this race, as he travelled throughout like he was going to be very competitive and probably only lost when a sticky leap two out cost him momentum.
He landed over the final fence with less impetus than the eventual winner which made a big difference, and the fact that he was closing again in the final 50 yards adds plenty of substance to this notion.
Flegmatic has been raised five pounds to 140 after this narrow defeat and he could be competitive again off that mark, although it would not take much to see him dropped enough to be back off his previous 135 rating in the 2024 version of this race.
He seems to be well suited to this course and distance and therefore should have two or three winnable targets for next season.
Frodon
This was a surprising performance on a couple of fronts, beginning with the fact that Frodon did not have the pace to get to the front over the first few fences. Perhaps one could understand due to Annsam's presence, but less so with the Kim Bailey horse.
Secondly, he showed some resolve to stay on into third position despite not getting to the front.
In recent times he has been a horse to down tools quite quickly when not dominating. so he deserves plenty of credit for his frame finish, albeit a long way behind the first two horses.
Bobhopeornohope
This was the second clear pointer of the day to a possible resurgence in the form of the Kim Bailey yard.
If Bobhopeornohope is left alone by the handicapper, we should see him again in the 0-140 handicap chase round Ludlow at the end of March - the one where he was beaten narrowly last season.
I would suggest we keep a close eye on the progress of Kim Bailey's runners over the next few weeks.
Enrilo
If the object of this exercise was to get Enrilo round and finish the race, then it was a case of job done. He was in the leading group turning for home, albeit under pressure and seemingly beaten.
That said, this clean round does offer his connections something to build on before presumably heading for the Bet365 Gold Cup in April.
Cap Du Nord
I would suggest the safest response to this performance is to put it down to Cap Nu Nord having endured a tough battle last week.
Along with his stable mate Kitty's Light, he has been dropping down the weights for quite some time, and consequently, his current mark of 132 still leaves him extremely well-in on his best form.
Cap Du Nord could well have one more race in him this season and I am hoping that this apparently disappointing performance will help with his price on another day.
He has not appeared to stay the Bet365 Gold Cup trip in each of his two previous attempts, so I am hoping to see him contest a valuable three-mile handicap chase on a flat track before the season is out.
Killer Clown
After dropping right away Killer Clown came down at the third last fence, with the result that he is on his way to becoming a well-handicapped horse, as he has now been dropped to 142 after this latest defeat.
I do not think he stays beyond two and a half miles, and he is also best on a sound surface. In my opinion he has competed in less-than-ideal conditions in five of his seven races and has won one of the other two chases he has contested.
My best guess is that we will see him next at Kempton on the day after the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The 0-150 handicap chase on that day is the one he won in 2022 whilst competing off 140.
Saint Calvados
After briefly looking like joining in with the leading group, Saint Calvados weakened rapidly off the turn for home, and he back-pedalled far too early to blame his suspect stamina for three miles.
He was well fancied pre-race by his connections, so this performance will have been a great disappointment.
He has won just one extremely weakly-contested chase in his latest 12 races and remains a horse to be wary of until he shows something to the contrary.
