Ludlow Expert Eye: Three horses to back on Wednesday October 6

Ludlow's seven-race card comes under the scrutiny of Planet Sport experts, with three horses flagged up as potential bets.


1.30 Cubswin

2.05 Outonpatrol

3.15 Runswick Bay

Course characteristics

Right-handed. Chase course flat with sharp bends, circuit 1m4f. Hurdles track, 150y longer, slightly undulating, with easier bends.

Top trainers with runners

Nicky Henderson has the best overall record over the last five season with his 22 winner coming at a healthy strike rate of 23% (22-94). Rapid Light (3.15) is his sole entry this afternoon.

Kim Bailey (Yeavering Belle, 1.30 and Talk Of The Moon, 4.25) and Dan Skelton (Scots Gold, 1.00) are joint next best on 19 winners apiece.

Top jockeys with runners

David Bass is on both the Kim Bailey-trained runners and his 19 winners (19-69, 28%) have yielded a whopping £109.49 profit to £1 level-stakes.

Furthest travelled

Martha Willow (163 miles). Jedd O'Keefe's filly was a comfortable winner of a Sedgefield bumper in April and carries a 6lb penalty for that success in today's mares' bumper (4.25).

1.30 - Cubswin

Cubswin could be the answer to a competitive looking mares handicap hurdle if fully tuned up after her 94 day break - the market will prove a good pointer to that.

That she's gone well fresh previously - won three times after breaks of 58 days or more - bodes well in that respect, and she goes sweetly under today's pilot Bryony Frost (3-11 on her).

Bryony Frost has won three times on the selection
Bryony Frost has won three times on the selection

The key to her is decent ground - all eight of her wins have been on good ground or faster - and that is almost assured at the Shropshire track, although some showers are forecast in the run up.

With winning chances likely to be few and far between once winter ground sets in, it wouldn't surprise if her trainer Neil King had her ready to rock and roll off what looks a winnable mark of 130.

UPDATE: the selection is proving easy to back this morning, so best keep stakes small.

2.05 - Outonpatrol

Shoal Bay is another who likes proper good ground and he was deeply unfortunate not to score at Worcester last month, when he dramatically lost his rider on the run in after the saddle slipped badly.

A winner over today's track and trip last October, he's going to prove a popular choice to gain some consolation this afternoon with just four rivals to beat.

However, a rather harsh 6lb rise means he has to lump top weight and give a stone to Alan King's Outonpatrol, who has continued to run well since scoring here back in May under today's conditional rider.

Lightly-raced over fences after just four attempts, she's the one I'd rather be on at the respective odds.

UPDATE: the selection is now edging favouritism with Shoal Bay friendless in the market.

3.15 - Runswick Bay

Emma Lavelle has her string in good form with three of her eight runners in the last fortnight obliging, all at decent odds.

Emma Lavelle's horses are in great form
Emma Lavelle's horses are in great form

That increases interest in her Runswick Bay, who is making his chase debut in the novices' handicap chase off what could be a lucrative mark of 118.

As a chase debutant he comes with risks, but he's already shown a decent level of form in winning twice (a bumper and a novice), and his sire Arvico has produced three chase winners to date, including the 165-rated Arvika Ligeonniere.

Seemingly best going right-handed - has disappointed twice on left-handed tracks - and on decent ground - it was riding good when he won at Taunton last November - he should have conditions to suit.

Tom Bellamy, who has booted home two of the stable's recent winners and has an overall strike rate of 27% (19-70, £37.26 profit to £1 level stakes), gets the leg up.

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