Carlisle Expert Eye: Four horses to back on Thursday October 21

Carlisle stages a seven-race card on Thursday and our four outright picks might just help you turn a profit.

Before we get into the reasons why, here's a quick rundown of our picks. Just click on the horse's names to go to Planet Sport Bet and place your bets.


Ritson each-way (1.55 Carlisle)

Quinta Do Mar (3.05 Carlisle)

On Springs (4.50 Carlisle)

Arcanja (5.20 Carlisle)

Top trainers with runners

Nicky Richards has been the trainer to follow over the last five seasons, with his 23 winners (from 86 runners, 27%) yielding a healthy £1 level-stakes profit of £37.29. He has four chances this afternoon: Everyday Champagne (1.55), Holme Abbey (4.15), Rickety Gate (4.50) and Headscarf Lil (5.20).

Top jockeys with rides

Brian Hughes, who has amassed 43 winners over the same period, those coming at a strike rate of 18%, rarely leaves the track empty-handed. He has six booked rides this afternoon: Mister Whitaker (1.55), Tupelo Mississippi (2.30), Onehundredpercent (3.05), Oscar Montel (3.40), Waitonit (4.15) and Kiss My Face (4.50).

Furthest travelled

Patrick Neville travels over from his County Limerick base (a journey of 336 miles) with one horse, Glentruan, in the opening novices' hurdle.

Berkshire-based Jamie Snowden is represented by Hardy Du Seuil in the 2m4f novices' chase (2.30). The four-year-old, who gets all the allowances, only got as far as the first in a match at Wetherby eight days ago and faces a tough task with the likes of Ahoy Senor and Cadzand (our idea of the winner) amongst his rivals.

1.55 Carlisle - Ritson each-way

Mister Whitaker cannot be sensibly opposed in this 2m4f novices' hurdle as he's a class apart from his ten rivals, albeit his best form, which includes a Cheltenham Festival success, is over fences.

Making his first start for Donald McCain and still technically a novice, this should prove to be a nice confidence booster before going back over the bigger obstacles, presumably.

So the selection, Ritson, is very much advised each-way in the hope he can fill one of the two places, with his promising bumper form suggesting he has a nice future ahead of him

His in-form trainer Rebecca Menzies gave him a good write up in a recent stable interview, reporting him to have schooled "brilliantly" and describing him as "definitely one to keep on your side".

Rebecca Menzies reports Ritson to have schooled brilliantly

Stick him in your tracker as he looks a surefire winner of a novice in the coming weeks.

3.05 Carlisle - Quinta Do Mar

Itsnotyouitsme is on a hat-trick after a couple of wins at Hexham, making all on each occasion, and a bold seems assured.

However, he's now on a career high mark and the drop back to 2m1f might not be ideal for him either, so he's worth taking on at shortish odds.

Amongst his eight rivals is the Ben Pauling-trained Quinta Do Mar, and the six-year-old looks well capable of winning a race of this nature of his current mark.

As a point winner his future lies over fences, but his hurdles form is far from shabby and includes a stylish novice win at Ludlow in March and a close second under today's claiming rider on his follow up bid at Market Rasen.

Better still was a highly respectable fourth on his handicap debut in a competitive class 2 at Cheltenham when last seen out in April, and he's now 1lb lower.

With his stable amongst the winners of late - 3-10 in the last fortnight - and having a good record at this track - 5-24, 21%, over the past five seasons - he looks worth a small interest, and especially if the market speaks in his favour.

Trainer Ben Pauling has a good record at Carlisle

4.50 Carlisle - On Springs

For much the same reason, we can't let Pauling's second runner of the day go unbacked in this 2m4f handicap hurdle, with his On Springs looking to be on a winnable mark and sporting cheek-pieces for the first time.

Having shown some promise in bumpers, he took a few runs to get the hang of hurdles and saved his best for when last seen out at Hereford in March.

While only fourth of the nine finishers on that occasion, he was still in there with every chance two out and only lost third in the dying strides, so the effort can be marked up.

He's young enough to build on that and rate a good deal higher than his current rating of 99, with Luca Morgan, who rides both the stable runners this afternoon, claiming a valuable 5lb.

Last-time-out winner Raddle And Hum and Elusive Red, who only narrowly failed to get off the mark over hurdles (at the 11th attempt) at Hexham 20 days ago, rate the main dangers.

5.20 Carlisle - Arcanja

Arcanja, a stablemate of Ritson, has the look of a very well handicapped horse in the closing 2m4f handicap hurdle, with his lowly mark of 77 meaning he has just 10st 1lb to carry.

He'd be absolutely thrown in on that mark were he to translate the form he showed in three jumpers' bumpers at the beginning of this year, including finishing second twice, to hurdles.

The last of those came at Newcastle in March, when stepping up to today's trip for the first time and, his half length conqueror, Moon King, is now rated 115.

It would be a surprise if his ambitious trainer didn't have him straight enough after a 255-day absence to exploit his rating, and the market should prove the best guide to that.

Of his rivals, both Very Patient and Calliope look weighted up to the hilt, so a bigger threat may come from McGarry, who has slipped to a good mark.

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