Tuesday Southwell top racing tip: Daafy looking to upset odds-on favourite

With horse racing hopefully returning to normal after the cold snap, Tipstrr's racing expert Steve Jones has been studying Tuesday's card to pick out his best value tip of the day.

Hailing from the powerful Roger Varian yard, Lord Paramount is unsurprisingly at the head of the market. As the most lightly-raced in the line-up, he comes here on the back of a comfortable seven-furlong win against eleven rivals at Wolverhampton under Jack Mitchell just two weeks ago.

However, whilst a very solid favourite in almost all respects, Lord Paramount does have to overcome a very wide draw in stall 11, which isn't ideal for one who likes to race prominently, plus this will be his first experience of the hurly-burly of a handicap against plenty of far more experienced rivals on a new course.

If those circumstances conspire against him, then one underestimated alternative is Derek Shaw's five-year-old Daafy, who has nothing to prove under this set of conditions because his top four career performances (from a total of 20 career runs) have all come over this course and distance.

15:55 (Southwell) Daafy

The best of them was probably his run here in April this year (only three runs ago), when he ran within a couple of lengths of the winner in a higher-graded Class 4 handicap over the same trip.

The winner that day, Encouraged, also won a 12-runner Class 4 on his next run, while the runner-up was all-weather specialist Bringitonboris, who has more recently placed in a higher-tier Class 4.

Just a short head in front of Daafy in third place was the 80-rated race favourite, Inver Park, who has since advertised the form line by winning each of his next three starts, the third of which was nothing less than the valuable Class 2 Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, in which he beat 28 rivals over this distance when racing off a mark that was 14 lbs higher than when he short-headed Daafy for third place a few weeks earlier.

Two lengths adrift of Daafy in that same race, the best of the rest was Gainsbourg, who has since won a Class 4 handicap, a line of form that looks extremely positive in the context of today's lower-tier Class 5 event in which Daafy competes off a pound lower.

That Class 4 handicap was Daafy's most recent run over what is very much his favourite trip and his three previous course and distance runs produced figures of 121, with his second place finish coming by just a short head.

Nevertheless, he still beat 26 of the 27 rivals he faced in those three successive handicaps and that run of form, combined with his big Class 4 run the following month, brings some very useful course/distance form to this moderate handicap.

A similar performance will give him a very good chance from a handy stall-5 draw under Tom Eaves, who rode three successive handicap winners at this venue earlier this month (one of them for this yard).

Latest news