Saturday Cheltenham tip: Trends analysis points to Noble Yeats in Cotswolds Chase

The Cotswold Chase is scheduled to be run over an extended three miles, one furlong at Cheltenham on Saturday (hopefully!) and the main trends are as follows:

By using the trends above and a few others, this six-runner field can be whittled down to four runners, with Protektorat ruled out on days since last run, and Frodon on age and being too exposed. 

Ahoy Senor can be ruled out as his wins have come on better ground, and the ground is likely to prove very demanding, especially as there wil have been five races run prior to this one.

Dusart is interesting, but has only won at Class 2 or below, plus he has only had a total of four chase runs, the last of which was back in April 2022, since when he needed a wind operation prior to a hurdle prep run in early December. 

I do like the attitude the horse has shown to win three of his four chases, and he ran well enough in a Grade 1 to suggest that further improvement is likely. He could be a probable threat here if adapting back to fences, which can sometimes take a race or two.

Noble Yeats fits the trends best of all, and his stamina is likely to come into play in the final furlong if he is able to stay within three or four lengths of the leaders coming to the last fence. 

Protektorat is probably the best horse in the race, but the 70-day gap since his last race, coupled with the likely nature of the going and his short price puts me off his chances here, especially if the team are keeping something back for the Gold Cup.

On that note, a word of warning about the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where all of these bar Dusart are entered, as the last winner of this race to win the big race was Looks Like Trouble way back in 2000.