Saturday Leopardstown tip analysis: Trends point to intriguing race for Irish Gold Cup
- Andrew of Fiosrach
- 3 February 2023
Ahead of Saturday's Irish Gold Cup, Tipstrr racing analyst Andrew of Fiosrach has been studying some trends that suggest that odds-on favourite Galopin Des Champs might not have things all his own way
This weekend's Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown showcases a number of potential Cheltenham Festival winners, and the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup is the major race of the meeting for chasers.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite Galopin Des Champs runs here and is the 1/3 favourite for the race.
I have used trends analysis to see if he deserves to be such a short-priced favourite against other Grade 1 horses.
The trends I have used plus a few others are as follows:
This race has been a Willie Mullins benefit with seven winners in the last twenty years and a total of eleven wins in the race.
Willie has four of the seven entries here, including the first three in the betting, but he has only won twice in the last nine years, including with Kemboy, who is third favourite here.
Galopin Des Champs falls down on a few trends listed above, namely his last run was over six weeks ago,he has not won a chase of three miles or further (but did enjoy three-mile success over hurdles), and he did not run in the Savills Chase last time.
The big question for me, however, is will Galopin Des Champs be a 100 per cent fit on Saturday, or will he be at his peak for the Cheltenham Gold Cup?
The horses that fare best on the trends are Fury Road and Stattler, with the latter yet to win at Grade 1 level.
Fury Road is interesting and has won over three miles plus and has also won at Grade 1 level, albeit over hurdles here. In eight chases he has only been outside the top three once, whilst winning twice.
Stattler is 9/2 in the early market and Fury Road sits at 22/1 which is tempting with 1/4 odds for the first two places. Alternatively, for the more cautious amongst you, the market without the favourite offers Fury Road at 6/1 with the same place odds with some bookmakers.
Galopin Des Champs is a massive twelve pounds clear on official ratings and is likely to stroll home, but with question marks around trip and full fitness, I for one won't be putting £30K on to win £10K.
The recommended play this week is Fury Road each-way and it's up to you if you go without the favourite or go for the big price and hope the favourite is undercooked.
