Is Essential Quality a justified favourite for Kentucky Derby?
The unbeaten Essential Quality is the overwhelming favourite to win the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, but there are a number of reasons why this confidence could be misplaced...
Horse racing is inherently difficult to predict, but add to the mix 20 horses racing at a distance they've never run before in an environment that is charged with tension and excitement, and if the word unpredictable comes to mind, you're on the right track.
There is one horse in the Kentucky Derby field on Saturday that stands out among all the others, but despite Essential Quality's spotless record in five races, he has been anything but dominant in those victories.
The Brad Cox-trained colt, one of two the future Hall of Famer has in the race, led the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points standings with 140, but barely defeated Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass Stakes. Essential Quality came from behind to win by a neck as the top two horses easily outdistanced the rest of the field.
As much as we would like to get on the Essential Quality bandwagon for the Kentucky Derby, there are a number of factors that give us pause.
Lack of a big win
To his credit, the Blue Grass Stakes ended up featuring three other Kentucky Derby entries, but he could just have easily lost to Highly Motivated as won, and that was starting from the fourth position in a nine-horse field. Barely winning the biggest race of his prep series season hardly puts him in American Pharoah territory.
Post position
He is starting from the 14th post position, just to the inside of Rock Your World and to the outside of Hidden Stash. That is the farthest outside starting spot in his brief career and he'll be fighting to get closer to the rail, where 6/1 Known Agenda has the inside post position and will be able to set the early pace.