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Andy Gibson racing analysis: Fakir D’Oudairies - a fortunate winner perhaps?

Following the success of Fakir D'Oudairies at Thurles on January 22, racing analyst Andy Gibson puts the winner under his expert scrutiny to gauge that result against tougher challenges ahead.

This Joseph O'Brien-trained eight-year-old was certainly spoken of as a fortunate winner after the leader fell at the final fence in the Grade Two Horse and Jockey Hotel Chase at Thurles.

Maybe he would not have caught Haut En Couleurs if that one had jumped the last cleanly; however, Fakir D'Oudairies was closing on him approaching the final fence and was staying on best of all at this point of the race.

Consequently, I doubt the race was as cut and dried as most will believe, as it was run at only a steady gallop until the pace quickened up from the fourth last fence.
The three leaders were being driven round the tight turn for home, which left Haut En Couleurs in pole position going well in behind.

Once Fakir D'Oudairies straightened up, his stamina began to kick in, though whether this would have been enough to prevail if the leader had stood up is open to debate. He will be better again on more galloping courses like Ascot, Cheltenham and Aintree.

Where next For Fakir D'Oudairies?

Surely the next port of call for O'Brien's stable star will be a return to Ascot to defend his Betfair Ascot Chase crown.

If he wins that Grade One chase in impressive fashion this may tempt his trainer into having a go at the Ryanair Chase just 24 days later.

In addition, if Allaho fails to return in time for March, I imagine this would significantly increase the chances of Fakir D'Oudairies lining up in the Ryanair.

When the market moves in the wrong direction

In my experience, it is worth taking note when a hot favourite for a race at the Cheltenham Festival is so strong in the market mainly due to a particularly positive performance at the Ascot meeting in the third week of February.
We might know that the horse is clearly better when racing fresh, and yet if that February performance was out of the ordinary, this other information is often, at least initially, overlooked in how the market is first presented.

The interesting anomaly at work here is that the more extreme the positive performance in February, the shorter that performer is in the market for March, but ironically the more likely that effort will have a detrimental effect on a horse that is usually best when fresh.

Trainer O'Brien kept his horse fresh for Aintree after his Betfair Ascot Chase success in 2022. Furthermore, in 2021 he ran Fakir D'Oudairies at the Dublin Racing Festival in early February before running his stable star as a fresh horse at the Cheltenham Festival.

I doubt very much that this trainer would see it as being ideal to run his horse at Ascot, Cheltenham and Aintree in the space of just over 40 days; that said, Fakir is now an eight-year-old and this may be his last opportunity to grab more Grade One glory at one of the spring festivals.

Allaho could be the key

I suspect that the presence or otherwise of Allaho in the Ryanair Chase could be key to the decision making of Joseph O'Brien, and if the Willie Mullins-trained Allaho is absent, then it is possible that Fakir D'Oudairies could start as a relatively short-priced favourite.

The point with Fakir D'Oudairies is not that he cannot win the Ryanair Chase should he be successful in impressive fashion in the Betfair Ascot Chase 24 days earlier.

It is simply that he is likely to be trading at a much shorter price than his profile merits for the Ryanair Chase, due to a spectacular-looking recent run that more likely detracts from his chances in that second race, rather than increases his claims, as the market is likely to imply.

You can read more racing insights and analysis from Andy Gibson by visiting his Eyecatchers Service, which is now available to trial on Tipstrr until the end of January. Click here to learn more

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