Mexico Open tips: Nicolai Hojgaard trending towards maiden USPGA Tour win

Mexico Open key stats:

• When: February 22-25 2024
• Where: Vidanta Vallarta, Mexico
• How long: 7,456 yards - par 71
• What to expect: Flat wide fairways, plenty of lakes, contoured greens with tricky collection areas
• Who won last year: Tony Finau (-24)

The defending champion Tony Finau has unsurprisingly been installed as the early 6/1 favourite at 15/2 after also finishing runner-up behind Jon Rahm in 2022. 

He clearly loves the course, but his game is not in the greatest shape at present, especially his putting, and it’s hard to get excited about such a short price.

Planet Sport Bet Offer: PGA Tour Mexico Open, Tony Finau was 6/1 - now 9/1

Better value at double the odds is Nicolai Hojgaard at 12/1, who converted some promising early showings in the Middle East to come within a stroke of the winner in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines a month ago.

He’s finished off the pace in two subsequent USPGA outings, but both of those were in much stronger company than here, so this offers a great opportunity to get his first win on the Tour.

Suggested bet: Nicolai Hojgaard each-way in the Mexico Open

A clutch of players on the 20/1 mark includes the capable Emiliano Grillo and Keith Mitchell, plus the emerging talent of young German Stephan Jaeger, who finished joint third behind Hojgaard at Torrey Pines and could feature again if able to put it together over four rounds.

Catching the eye at a tasty 25/1 this week is Taylor Pendrith, who has been limited to three appearances this year, bookending a missed cut at the American Express with top ten finishes in the Sony Open and the Farmers Insurance. 

No issues off the tee here for the gifted Canadian, whose game fits this course well - he has proven above average with approach shots from circa two hundred yards, of which he should have plenty this week.

Suggested bet: Taylor Pendrith each-way in the Mexico Open

It’s easy to see Ryan Fox enjoying these wide fairways, and if the New Zealander can get his putter working in Mexico, then a good start could easily make 33/1 look very juicy odds. 

The same argument can be made for Ryo Hisatsune, who is another Japanese golfer trending in the right direction and he seems to look the part wherever he is playing.

Our last contender to get the nod, however, is Thorbjorn ‘The Thunder Bear’ Olesen, who romped home by six shots to land the Ras Al Khaimah CHampionship on the DP World Tour last month and has an opportunity to progress on the USPGA version in Mexico.

Suggested bet: Thorbjorn Olesen each-way in the Mexico Open

Outsiders to watch:

• Maverick McNealy (40/1) - Big driver, good putter, flatters to deceive but clearly talented, as he proved when sixth at the Phoenix Open
• Joseph Bramlett (66/1) - Long off the tee, if a bit wayward, good on approach, sets up well for this course if only his flatstick behaves
• Robert MacIntyre (80/1) - Off his game recently, but this could be a good chance to put four good rounds together in less esteemed company

Suggested each-way bet summary:

• Nicolai Hojgaard (12/1) - 2.5 points each-way
• Taylor Pendrith (25/1) - 1.5 points each-way
• Thorbjorn Olesen (25/1) - 1.5 points each way