16/1 Branden Grace can do us a favour in final round of Wyndham Championship
Russell Henley still leads the way after day three at Sedgefield Country Club but the South African looks the value play in the pre-R4 betting.
Seven of the last 11 third-round leaders have gone on to win so, as well as a very handy three-shot lead, Henley also has history on his side.
And yet there are some red flags Henley backers must also be aware of when scanning past editions of this event.
A more recent thermometer check shows that four of the last seven Wyndham winners were three or more shots back after Saturday's play. That includes each of the last two.
After 54-holes @WyndhamChamp:
ā PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 14, 2021
1. Russell Henley -15
2. Tyler McCumber -12
T3. @BrandenGrace -11
T3. @RogerSloan87
T3. @K_Kisner
T3. Kevin Na
T3. @ScottPiercyPGA
T3. Rory Sabbatini
T9. 6 players tied -10
First, despite staying out in front on Saturday, he did so via a modest 1-under 69.
He acknowledged that after walking off the course on Saturday. "I think I was just a little bit tentative, maybe a little bit nervous. I've never had a four-shot lead, so just kind of dealing with all the thoughts that are not wanted in my head and just trying to focus on what I want to do."
None of that trio went on to win.
Due to forecasted thunderstorms Sunday afternoon at the @WyndhamChamp, final-round tee times will feature threesomes off split tees from approx. 7 - 9 a.m.
ā PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) August 14, 2021
Chasers can thrive at Sedgefield
Final-round scoring average
Now, let's look at how they performed in round three: 'Moving Day'.
Who has the momentum?
.@RogerSloan87 is on the move. š
ā PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 14, 2021
Round 1: T128
Round 2: T32
Round 3: T3
A career-low 54-hole score for Sloan who currently sits at 131 in the #FedExCup standings. pic.twitter.com/Ym0BBxv8ww
Winning from behind
The selection
Before this week, Grace's best score at Sedgefield had come in round four so that also bodes well.
With 1/3 the odds at Planet Sport Bet for the first two home, he has to rank as a good each-way bet at 16/1 and hopefully his status as a proven winner can shine through in round four.
The final piece of the jigsaw is that Grace is in the final group so can look leader Henley in the eye. He also ranks as a good bet to win that three-ball against Henley and McCumber.