Soccer
  • Home
  • Golf
  • Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tips: Scottie Scheffler back on song ahead of title defence

Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tips: Scottie Scheffler back on song ahead of title defence

Picking his way through the start-studded line-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, golf pundit Martin Colwell has picked out a few likely contenders from all over the betting market.

With the DP World Tour taking a week off, and LIV Golf (for those who want to watch it) not back for another fortnight, all golfing eyes will be on the US PGA Tour this weekend.

The Florida swing of the tour continues the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, the home of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which is an elevated tournament with most of the world top twenty scheduled to play.

Bay Hill is a par 72, 7,466 yards in length, and is a tough classical set-up that was designed by the late great Arnold Palmer himself to test every facet of a top golfer's game.

The players will be confronted with a Bermuda grass surface that is overseeded with Rye.

Although the fairways have been widened in recent years, there are nine water hazards to negotiate, and many astutely placed bunkers to catch errant shots, plus they are lined with demanding rough that make driving accuracy key in order to avoid approach shots that are difficult to control.

Players landing too hard on the large greens on approach may well watch their ball run off into a hazard. Even when finally on the putting surface, finding the hole can become a bit of a lottery as the greens dry out and firm up in the sun and/or wind.

The reigning champion is Scottie Scheffler, who mastered these challenges impeccably last year. Scheffler is showing signs of the form that catapulted him to the World No 1 spot a year ago, so there is definitely some each-way value in him defending his title this week at around 9/1.

There are no surprises at the top of the betting market this week. Jon Rahm is in great winning form so far in 2023, and is justifiably the favourite around the 6/1 mark. However, this is a stacked field this week and so we have to look for more value than the favourite can offer.

Next in the betting at around 9/1 is Rory McIlroy, who loves this course, and while not in the best of form (by his standards) at present, it won't be a shock for him to at least place this week.

Beyond the world's top three the market prices jump to the 18-22/1 mark, where we find Collin Morikawa. It would be easy to see him in contention this week as his accurate iron play should be very useful on this course, but his putting stroke, particularly on Sundays, remains a worry.

in the same price band we have a stack of top-quality golfers including Max Homa, Justin Thomas and Will Zalatoris, all of whom carry realistic claims to be in with a shout come Sunday evening.

Others to consider

Matt Fitzpatrick catches the eye at 33/1, and the 2022 US Open champion should relish the tough course, plus he is used to coping with windy conditions.

There is obviously some value in last year's runner up here, Viktor Hovland, at 28/1, as he has clearly proved that he is able to deal with the testing course, despite the fact he blew the final round in 2022 and allowed Scheffler to catch him.

I also like the look of Keith Mitchell at 50/1, who has been in good form so far in 2023. Since missing the cut at the Sony Open, Mitchell has finished 22nd in the American Express (19 under par), fourth at Pebble Beach (-14), and fifth behind high-profile names of Rahm, Homa, Cantlay and Zalatoris two weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational (-12).

Looking deeper still at the real outsiders, then Sam Ryder always catches my eye. He has enjoyed some great recent finishes, mixed in with some missed cuts, but at 150/1 I'm willing to give him a chance this week.

More Articles