USPGA Honda Classic golf tips: Billy Horschel has the game to shine in Florida sun

Martin ColwellMartin Colwell22 February 2023
Billy Horschel Bay Hill 2022

Billy Horschel Bay Hill 2022

With many star names missing Florida's opening event, Tipstrr golf pundit Martin Colwell believes that there are opportunities to find enhanced betting value from within the weakened field.

This week sees the USPGA Tour move from the west coast to the east coast as the Florida swing tees off with the Honda Classic at the Jack Nicklaus-influenced PGA National Champions course at Palm Beach Gardens.

As we are Eastern Standard Time this week, play should get underway around midday UK time on Thursday, and because the Honda Classic is not an elevated tour event the level of golfers on show has a sizeable drop from last weekend's Genesis Invitational.

The par-70 track is 7,125 yards in length, an exposed inland course that is known to be influenced by the wind - and as with all Nicklaus courses, players will face a classical golf test.

When the wind blows, it will add to the challenge of tight Bermuda grass fairways that are lined by tough rough and protected by plentiful water hazards and testing bunkers.

Holes 15 to 17, ominously known as the 'Bear trap' are widely considered to be among the toughest stretch of holes on tour.

The greens are larger than most on tour, but pin positions can be awkward, so being in position to hit greens in regulation makes straight driving key here. 

Scrambling skills are also sure to come into play, and the leading bunch are likely to be hovering around the 10-under-par mark coming down the stretch on Sunday.

With numerous big names taking a week off, the bookies favourite at around the 8/1 mark is Sungjae Im, who has been in good form with several top 10 and 20 finishes in recent times. 

He was also a previous winner of this tournament as recently as 2020 and so the obvious favourite this week, albeit without carrying much value at that price.

Shane Lowry showed some form last week and that has promoted him to second favourite this week, and although still getting to grips with a new caddie, he might be worth a punt at 14/1.

A wide open market sees the next bunch jump to the 22/1 line, suggesting another opportunity for an outsider to win on the tour?

Lower down the market, an attractive looking option is Billy Horschel at 25/1, which looks good value if you can get the enhanced each-way places offered by some bookmakers. 

More suited to a tougher challenge than a drive and chip shootout, Billy can contend in this lesser level field, and his game sets up well for the test ahead.
Min Woo Lee caught my eye on this course, as the Aussie likes a tough test and does not mind a bit of wind. The downside of his game is that he can struggle on Sundays with his putting if in contention, making his 22/1 tag borderline value in my eyes.

We must not forget the reigning champion here, Sepp Straka. The Austrian does miss a lot of cuts, but on a good week his current 50/1 odds could look ridiculously big by Sunday afternoon.

I did also give some thought to Padraig Harrington, because any former U.S. Open champion is sure to rise to the test of a tough course, although his 66/1 odds are not as generous as they might be.

Finally, back to the 25/1 shots, I am drawn to local resident Adam Svensson, who won on tour in November in a similarly weakened event, and his ninth place last week among more esteemed company in California suggests that he could carry that form into this tournament.