Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez bids for Mexican history against Sergey Kovalev

For a good while it looked like no UK broadcaster would be televising the fight. Happily common sense has prevailed and Alvarez's WBO title fight against Sergey Kovalev will be live on Sky Sports as the Mexican star attempts to become a four-weight world champion.
To the uninitiated 'Canelo', a pro since the age of 15, was fast tracked to the top in less time it takes Don King to finish a sentence. Thankfully he's proved he's way more substance than hype and he has enjoyed a remarkable career to this point. Make no mistake, in the post-Mayweather era, Alvarez stands alone as the biggest star in boxing.
The Mexican is only 29 but is already a veteran of 55 pro fights. Only Mayweather has been too good for him since turning over in 2005 and he was last seen taking a close but clear decision win over Daniel Jacobs in Las Vegas. Money is the prime mover in boxing and therefore Alvarez, as the 'A Side', has been able to cherry pick his opposition in recent years. Enter Kovalev.
The Russian can't have had much rest since his war with Anthony Yarde, which took place at the end of August. And while we are no complaining to see such a destructive puncher in action again so soon against a global superstar, one wonders what his preparation for this has actually looked like?
The fight is no foregone conclusion. There's a case to be made for Kovalev here. Alvarez is making a huge leap from middle to light-heavyweight and the Russian is a noted banger. There's also a theory in boxing that 'A good big un' always beats a good little 'un'. What's really swinging it for some folk though is Gennady Golovkin's most recent performance. Seeing GGG struggle last time out has made some observers question Canelo's performances against Golovkin. Maybe they were not as impressive as we first thought? For the record I had Golovkin winning their first fight rather handily but the judges obviously saw it differently.

However Kovalev isn't GGG, and this isn't uncharted territory we are talking here. Roy Jones and Bernard Hopkins have previously made the leap from 160 to 175lbs by winning world titles two weights above their natural division (against Mike McCallum and Antonio Tarver respectively). Team Canelo will have thought long and hard about the fight. This business is all about timing and they will be sure they are getting 'Krusher' at the right time.
For while both boxers are still world level and will have prepared diligently to bring their A-game, only one of the fighters this weekend is in his prime. Alvarez has a 52-1-2 (35) pro log and while the superstardom is somewhat manufactured, he has reached the top of this most brutal of businesses on merit. In contrast there is a shopworn feel to his opponent, who has enjoyed a stellar 34-3-1 (29) careers but is now at 36 also battling Father Time.

This version of Kovalev just seems to run out of steam when the heat is on. He was stopped by Andre Ward (in dubious circumstances) and was a tad fortunate to get past a hard-punching but raw Londoner Yarde last time out. As dangerous as he is, with his solid jab and big right hand, he has a tendency to unravel mid-fight and is more vulnerable now than ever. He also needs to stop Alvarez to beat him and I don't see that happening.
The heart thinks this jump up in weight may be too audacious, even for such a gnarled ring wizard such as Canelo. If you feel the same a Kovalev stoppage victory is chalked up at 11/2.

The head however says that Canelo - a slick technician with fast hands - will box safety first towards a decision against a much bigger, harder punching foe. If it's close on the cards, we know which way the fight is going to go in Las Vegas (they call it Sin City for a reason). Yet unless the Russian has aged overnight and just falls apart, the shout here is Canelo on points at evens.

Betting: 5pts - Alvarez to win by decision or technical decision at evens (Paddy Power)

' 18+, GambleAware®, T&Cs apply.'