Nuggets @ 76ers tips and picks: Shorthanded Denver will fail to capitalise on back-to-back spot
- George Dempsey
- 16 January 2024
The Philadelphia 76ers (25-13) welcome the Denver Nuggets (28-13) to Wells Fargo Center in the NBA on Tuesday night (0030 GMT Weds).
The perception may be that the Philadelphia 76ers are in a tough spot here, playing back-to-back against the reigning NBA Champions.
However, they’re arguably in better shape than Denver. All five starters are listed as questionable, which is highly unusual and indicates rest.
While Michael Malone probably won’t pull all five starters, it’s clear there are niggling injuries in this group and this may be the moment for a well-earned rest.
Nikola Jokic (hip), Aaron Gordon (heel), Michael Porter (knee), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (back) and Jamal Murray (leg) join Julian Strawther and Vlatko Cancar on the injury report.
Philadelphia’s starters logged a combined 151 minutes in the 124-115 win over the Houston Rockets last night, with Joel Embiid logging 31 minutes.
The big man dominated in the key and did what he wanted on offence. If Nikola Jokic doesn’t suit up, this game will follow the same pattern.
It’s also worth noting that the 76ers led by nearly 20 as early as the first quarter, which they won 33-19, and opened up a 21-point lead by the fourth. It wasn’t a taxing game.
It’s also worth noting that even in the fleeting moments it was competitive, Houston are not a team that pushes the pace, so again, the effects of the back-to-back are mitigated.
The Denver Nuggets are 28-13 on the season and favourites for another title push, but they’re just 11-9 on the road compared to 17-4 at home.
Philly’s 15-6 home record is matched by their 15-6ATS record. They’re outsourcing teams by close to 11 points at home this season so on any given night, they can match Denver.
We also have to consider the Nuggets shot 64.8% from the field in their last game, so it’s worth banking on some substantial regression here.
Denver is 0-5ATS on the back of a win and 1-7ATS in road games against teams winning 60% of their games. On the other hand, the 76ers are 35-16ATS as a home favourite and on a 4-0ATS run against teams winning 60% of their games.
