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Rockets @ Heat tips and picks: Houston’s defence to keep it close

The Miami Heat (20-15) welcome another winning team the Houston Rockets (18-16) to Kaseya Center on Monday night (Tues 0030 GMT).

There are six games on the schedule in the NBA on Monday night and we've picked out our favourite bet from the East hosts West clash as the Miami Heat welcome the Houston Rockets.

Suggested bets

Houston Rockets +4.5

Rockets @ Heat preview

Miami Heat are a strong 20-15 this season but they don’t seem to have a particularly big homecourt advantage. They’re just 9-6 in Miami.

They like to put on their hard hats and go to battle so they’ve produced just as good a run of results away from Miami.

Tonight they’ll face another team who aren’t afraid to get their hands dirty and tough it out in the 18-16 Houston Rockets.

The Rockets certainly do have a big homecourt advantage but they are a dismal 3-10 and they’ve lost eight of the last 10 meetings with the Heat.

However, Houston started 8-0 on the road and shipped a ton of points. Since then, they’re 3-2, averaging 113 points against and recently beat Denver.

Are they turning a corner? Perhaps. It helps that they’ll be facing a team minus Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin, absences which of course are worked into the spread.




Miami are -4 favourites but they’ve failed to cover three of four and they’re just 5-10ATS at home. Meanwhile, Houston is at least 6-6ATS, despite their losing record.

But it’s worth noting that Miami is on a 5-12ATS run at home and 1-4ATS against teams winning less than 40% of road games.

Also, Miami is 8-20ATS against a team with a losing road record and finally, 3-7ATS on the back of a road trip of seven days or more.

They faced some real test competition out West during the road trip and while the common conception is they’ll be excited to be home, they may just be tired and flat.

We also have to consider that at first glance, this line just doesn’t pass the eye test. Why are Miami only -4 against a 3-10 road team? Because the bookies want you to bet on them, perhaps.

We’ll scoop up the extra half point that Planet Sport Bet are currently offering us and roll with Houston +4.5.

Suggested bet: Houston Rockets +4.5


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