NBA playoff preview and tips: Miami Heat at New York Knicks - Game Five
- George Dempsey
- 10 May 2023
Miami Heat are in a dominant position with a 3-1 series lead, but New York Knicks will come out fighting at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday.
The Knicks trail the series 3-1 and can't afford to lose another game. Whilst there may be no way back, they should put forward their best effort to close the gap in game five.
Standout Trends
Under is 7-2 in New York's last nine games.
Under is 7-1-1 in New York's last nine playoff games as a favourite.
Heat are 7-0ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning record.
Heat are 8-0ATS in their last eight games playing on a single day of rest.
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Heat at Knicks - Game Five verdict
The Knicks opened as a -3 favourite to win with SX.bet, but that line has since been pushed out to -4 due to backing.
The Knicks were beaten 109-101 in game four and 105-86 in game three to hand the Heat a commanding 3-1 series lead. Teams don't usually come back from that. New York now needs to win three straight.
There have been 277 instances of a team leading an NBA playoff series 3-1, and only 13 times did the trailing team come back to win 4-3. The most recent example was the Nuggets over the Clippers in 2020.
Considering the Knicks' perilous position, it is worth considering what the numbers say. When a team leads a series 3-1, they wrap things up in game five 63% of the time.
The Knicks have beaten Miami 111-105, 101-92 and 106-104 on home court this season. They've held visiting teams to 111 and given the do-or-die situation, we should see their best defensive effort.
This series has trended over then under thus far, with seven of the Knicks' nine playoff games going under the total. The pace of this game could be significantly slower with fewer mistakes from the home side.
Miami are currently on a 7-0ATS run and have won 13 of their last 18 meetings with the Knicks. Even in their game two defeat - without Jimmy Butler - Miami were able to cover the +10 spread in a 111-105 loss.
The Heat are on a 5-1ATS run against the Knicks this season and while the hosts may or may not extend the series, it figures to be a close game once again. We're backing the Heat +6.5 for security plus under the total.
