NBA preview and tips: Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks

We've opposed the Warriors a few times lately and it keeps paying off, as they have allowed 124 points per game on their travels. Losing 134-126 to the Clippers, 131-110 to Memphis, and 137-128 to Oklahoma in the past 10 days.

The number of points allowed has crept closer to 130 per game through their last 10 road trips, and visiting the Hawks isn't likely to help that.

Despite having a losing record, Atlanta have a winning record at home, where they average 117 points per game. But they've averaged closer to 125 points per game through their last six on their home court.

Nobody in the NBA plays at a quicker pace than the Warriors, but the Hawks come close. The combination of good offence, poor defence, and end-to-end basketball was on show when the teams last met with the Warriors winning 143-141.

Of the Warrior's 33 road games 25 have gone over the total and we still have no reason to believe their defence is going to improve at this stage of the season. They have no choice but to continue to back their ability to win games by scoring.

Even with one of the best shooters in the league putting up 40 to 50 points per night, it hasn't happened on the road, where Golden State have now dropped nine straight, failing to cover the spread in any of them.

One key to being profitable in the NBA is catching trends quicker than those setting the odds in Vegas. At this point, it seems beyond outdated and borderline ridiculous that we continue to see such modest numbers. The Warriors are often favourites and for the second game in a row are a +3 underdog.

That's more understandable against the leaky Hawks, but it feels a stretch to back them to keep a game within a score against any respectable home team, so we have to continue to fade them.

You suspect if they do cover the number then it'll be in a wild shootout. The over is 41-19 in games where the Hawks are a home favourite, and the over is 40-16 in Golden State road games.

It's also a strong 25-10 playing on a single day of rest, and 38-13 against teams with a winning home record.

The Warriors are now 16-35 ATS in their last 51 road games, whilst Atlanta are 13-5 ATS as a home favourite of 0.5-4.5 points. Back Atlanta -3.

Atlanta Hawks -3

Tha action gets under way at 19:30 EST (23:30 UK time)