Bucks @ Nuggets tips, picks and prop bets: Jokic to outscore Giannis as Denver cover the spread
- George Dempsey
- 29 January 2024
Monday’s free NBA tip features TNT Sport’s televised offering as the Milwaukee Bucks (32-14) visit the Denver Nuggets (32-15) in the early hours of Tuesday morning (0200 GMT).
Monday night’s televised match-up pits the Greek Freak and the Bucks against Joker and the Denver Nuggets in the high altitude of Ball Arena.
Suggested bets
NBA ATS Trends
- Nuggets have won 13 of 20 meetings in Denver
- Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings
- Bucks are 1-7 ATS after a win
- Bucks are 16-37 ATS as an underdog
- Bucks are 0-6 ATS on the road
Bucks @ Nuggets preview
The Bucks and the Nuggets have won seven of their last 10 but covered ATS on just three occasions.
Milwaukee made light work of the Cleveland Cavaliers on the back of firing head coach Adrian Griffin, but the Cavs gained revenge in a 112-100 win days later.
Meanwhile, Denver was blown away by the Knicks, 122-84, but followed that up with a 111-105 win over the 76ers. They’ve since beaten the Pelicans 141-117.
They shot just 42.5% from the field across those two matches so you’d expect a big rebound in a game where they’ll be highly motivated to win.
The Bucks, on the other hand, shot 56% in their bounce-back game and made 20 three-point shots, meaning they fall into some interesting systems.
Teams who have made 20 or more 3PT shots show serious regression in their next game, winning 204 of 406 but failing to cover the point spread 54.1% of the time.
Also, we know that teams who scored 134 or more points in an isolated contest have responded by going 190-238 ATS next time out, failing to cover 55.6% of the time.
Not only are the Bucks struggling to cover, going 3-11 ATS in their last 14, but they’re also on a 1-7 ATS run as an underdog on their travels.
Another reason to expect regression is the Bucks have made 45 or fewer field goals in four of five around that win, and they’ve also stepped up on defence.
They’ve been holding opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and will need to play extremely good defence to get out of Denver with a win.
Denver will be highly motivated for this game and unless Giannis Antetekounmpo can find a way to slow down Nikola Jokic, Denver match up well elsewhere and should prevail.
