NBA playoff preview and tips: Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns - Game Six

George DempseyGeorge Dempsey11 May 2023
Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant

Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant

Denver Nuggets have a chance to wrap up a 4-2 series win when they visit the Phoenix Suns at the Footprint Center.

Nikola Jokic continued to dominate this series with his fourth triple-double of the NBA playoffs so far. Denver now has the chance to finish the job on the road.

Standout Trends

Over is 12-3-1 in Phoenix's last 16 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 8-2 in Phoenix's last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Over is 13-3 in Denver's last 16 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 16-5 in Denver's last 21 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5 points.

Suggested Bets

Over 227 points

Nuggets @ Suns - Game Six verdict

For the third time in this series, the Denver Nuggets beat the Phoenix Suns by at least 10 points. Nikola Jokic recorded 13 rebounds, 12 assists and 29 points in his side's 118-102 win at Ball Arena.

Bruce Brown Jr. scored 25 points from the bench for Denver, while Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray added 19. Devin Booker again starred with 28 for Phoenix, with Kevin Durant adding 26.
The game comes back to Phoenix now, where the Suns were able to pick up back-to-back wins in games three and four of this NBA playoff series. Phoenix Suns are a -3.5 favourite with SX.bet to force a game seven.
Despite giving up plenty of points in those games, the Suns were able to score 129 and 121. On the road, they've averaged 98 points. The thing that Phoenix did well in those games was push the pace.

In the absence of Chris Paul, Cameron Payne deputised and pushed the tempo. The Nuggets are a losing road team, remember, and the Suns found ways to unbalance them and score.

The same thing should happen in game six. Phoenix would like to find a way to slow Denver down, but it looks unlikely. The Nuggets have scored 125, 97, 114, 124 and 118 in five games so far.

The total was set at 225 points for game three in Phoenix, a game in which the Suns won 121-114 for a total of 236 points. The total was upped to just 226 for game four, a match the Suns won 129-124.

The opening total for game six is 226.5 and that doesn't seem to make much sense. Sure, when it comes down to winning or going home, playoff basketball is typically gritty and defensive. The problem is the Suns have no defence, so they have to play fast and score.

The over is 12-3-1ATS in Phoenix's last 16 games after a loss, reflecting the fact they respond to a setback by pushing the pace. Denver allows 115ppg on the road this season. We're going to bet over 226.5 points.

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