NBA playoff preview and tips: Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
- George Dempsey
- 19 April 2023
Denver Nuggets will look to build on their 1-0 series lead as they play host to Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena in the NBA playoffs.
It might be unfair and equally unwise to write the Timberwolves off at this stage, but Denver's 109-80 win in game one might tell you all you need to know about this series. Denver should beat Minnesota in game two this evening.
One crumb of comfort for Minnesota is that the home side has now won the last five meetings in the series, so they have already beaten Denver at home this season.
That said, they're likely to surrender a 2-0 advantage to the hosts this evening, and there's no coming back from that in our view.
Denver deserve credit for their part in the scoreline, but they didn't do anything spectacular. Minnesota carved out some good looks and simply didn't take them, shooting 37% from the field and making 30% of their three-point attempts.
Their defence on their travels is usually pretty porous, but they are active on defence and tend to force turnovers, which is something else they didn't excel at as they fell below their season average.
Karl-Anthony Towns scored 11 points on 33% shooting in game one and you can guarantee that won't happen again. Anthony Edwards also fell short with 18 points, while Kyle Anderson and Jaylen Nowell contributed 11 and 12 from the bench.
On a personal level and as a team, Minnesota produced so many poor performances, that it seems inevitable they'll bounce back on offence. But that doesn't mean they'll step up on defence or keep this game close.
Denver have averaged 119 points per game at home this season, allowing just 109. Minnesota should be able to produce enough of a response to get close to that number, and it should put more pressure on Denver to score better.
The game one total fell so far short of what everyone expected and it's shaved a couple of points off of the bookmakers' total for game two, adding value.
The Over is 12-4 in Denver's last 16 Conference Quarterfinals and they've averaged 115 points across their last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves, a run which saw them drop 146 back in February.
Standout Trends
Nuggets are 19-8ATS in their last 27 home games.
Nuggets are 23-9ATS in their last 32 games against a winning team.
Timberwolves are 5-12ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days of rest.
Timberwolves are 5-15SU in their last 20 games against Denver.
Suggested Bets
Over 223.5 points
