NBA preview and tips: Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks (34-34) welcome the Memphis Grizzlies (40-26) on Monday night in what should be a fascinating game that catches both teams in an interesting spot.
The Mavs are trying to cling on to a play-off spot that is in jeopardy after seven losses in their last 10 games, while the Grizzlies are pretty much guaranteed a play-off spot and are just fighting it out to place as high as possible.
They come here on back-to-back wins on home court, including a 112-108 victory over Dallas two days ago, and it's that victory that makes this game so attractive from a betting point of view.
After narrowly beating Dallas on their court, they now face a Mavericks team looking for immediate revenge. Revenge is not always as big a factor as made out to be by NBA bettors, but when someone beats you in a close one just two days prior, then it's a factor.
While there is no doubt Memphis are the better team, there's a difference between their form at home and on the road.
Memphis are 28-5 at home and 12-21 on the road. Equally, Dallas are 22-13 but just 12-21 on the road.
The spread opened at Memphis -1, with the total set at 222, and the fact that the Grizzlies are a 1-point favourite is also interesting, as it casts Dallas into the role of underdog on their own court.
The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS (against the spread) as a home underdog and remember, they're targeting that revenge. It's also interesting to note that Dallas are raising their level against good teams, going 5-2 ATS against teams winning 60 per cent or better of their games.
Equally, this one could be about the Grizzlies' failings on the road. Their only road win in the past 12 games came against the lowly Rockets, and they just so happen to be on an 0-5 ATS run against Dallas.
Steven Adams and Ja Morant remain out for the Grizzlies, and it was so often the latter that was Memphis' x-factor when they did manage to win on the road earlier in the season.
Memphis are 7-19 ATS when they visit a side winning 60 per cent or more of their home games, and just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favourite on the road.
The best bet here is to back Dallas to get some revenge.
Match begins at 18:30 EST (23:30 UK time)
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