EFL Saturday acca tips: Ipswich to bounce back, Wrexham still hungry for goals, plus more…

Back all four selections as singles and/or bundle them together into an acca at combined odds of just under 12/1 on Planet Sport Bet (prices subject to change)

Tips provided by Rhys Tovey, who runs his AGF football service on Tipstrr

Ipswich Town vs Sunderland

By their own lofty standards set so far this season, the festive period went very poorly for Ipswich Town, picking up three points from four matches, which has seen them drift away from top of the table Leicester City. 

They did lose just one of those four however, away at high-flying Leeds United, and drew the other three. Solid points picked up at home against Leicester and away at Stoke City were followed by a win in what was a potential banana skin in the FA Cup at AFC Wimbledon, hopefully providing a sign that their form is getting back on track.

Travelling to Portman Road this weekend is a Sunderland side who are coming off the back of a 3-0 defeat at home to their biggest north-east rivals, Newcastle United in the FA Cup

Worryingly, Sunderland offered nothing, albeit against Premier League opposition, and significantly lowered the mood around the fanbase, with fingers being pointed at manager Mick Beale despite only being in the job for less than three weeks.

Portman Road is a very tough place to travel to, with only Leeds and Leicester picking up more points at home than Ipswich. With the home side being above evens to win this fixture, backing them to pick up the three points on Saturday looks like decent value.

Suggested bet: Ipswich to win (11/10)

Cambridge Utd vs Fleetwood Town

Since Neil Harris was appointed manager, Cambridge United have picked up a credible seven points from five league games, helping them stay just outside the relegation zone. 

Other than a disappointing defeat to unpredictable Leyton Orient, they have won their other two home fixtures under Harris, and this weekend they face a Fleetwood Town side whom they beat 4-0 just last month in the FA Cup.

Fleetwood are having an horrific season, sitting bottom of the table, eight points adrift of safety and are already on their third manager of the season.

Lee Johnson took charge in September and his average of a point a game would often be enough to avoid relegation over an entire season in League One, so sacking him in December seems harsh on the face of it. 

Either way, things look pretty bleak at Fleetwood and new manager Charlie Adam has a huge job on his hands after kicking off his tenure with back-to-back 3-1 defeats, indicating that there is not going to be an instant turnaround.

Although Cambridge look far from a side you would be confident backing each week, they have shown signs they are moving in the right direction, winning six of their last eight at home. The confidence in backing a home win in this fixture is primarily down to how poor Fleetwood have been and the odds just shy of even money look like good value here.

Suggested bet: Cambridge to win (20/21)

Tranmere Rovers vs MK Dons

This fixture sees two of the in-form sides in the division meet in what looks like it could be an exciting game. No matter which form table you look at, whether it’s the last four games or even the last twelve league games, both of these sides feature in the top six places.

Tranmere Rovers have been particularly impressive at home since Nigel Adkins appointment in September, scoring 21 goals in his nine league games in charge, as well as scoring at least two in eight of those nine games. 

They have not matched success at the other end of the pitch, however, keeping just two clean sheets in those nine games, and under Adkins, Tranmere’s home matches have seen an average of 3.44 goals per game.

MK Dons are the visitors this weekend and, after losing their nine-game unbeaten-run on New Year’s Day, will be looking to bounce back here and continue their charge for the play-offs. This bet has won in eight of their twelve away games so far this campaign, including the last three which have averaged 4.33 goals per game.

With both sides capable of scoring goals and neither looking convincing defensively, predicting goals rather than the result looks to be the smart play.

Suggested bet: Over 2.5 goals (8/11)

Wrexham vs AFC Wimbledon

Hollywood-owned Wrexham will be looking to continue their push for League One status this weekend as they host an AFC Wimbledon side who have promotion ambitions of their own.

While being much more conservative away from home, Wrexham are a different animal when playing at the Racecourse Ground, and this has won in every single home game they have played this season in the league. In fact, they have managed to score three or more in eight of their thirteen home games.

With that in mind, it begs the question; what is the downside to this selection and why are the odds as big as 4/5? The easy answer is the quality of the opposition. 

AFC Wimbledon are themselves having a great season, currently sitting just inside the play-off spots. While more free-scoring and open at home, just like Wrexham, away from home they keep things much tighter, and have kept an impressive seven clean sheets away from home and only conceded more than one goal twice.

Those two games were against Newport County and Morecambe, two sides from the bottom half and pose no where near the same level of threat of Wrexham. There have also been signs that Wimbledon’s defence is not as strong as it was at the start of the season, and they have only managed one clean sheet in their last five away games.

So, this selection has won in 100% of Wrexham’s home games, but has lost eleven out of thirteen times if backing against AFC Wimbledon, which I think is why the odds have been priced as they have. 

Last time out Wrexham faced Barrow, who had the exact same defensive record as Wimbledon (only conceding two or more twice in thirteen away from home) going into the match. 

Wrexham romped that match 4-1, showing that their attack was too strong for a side who has conceded less goals than AFC Wimbledon this season. For this reason, plus evidence that AFC Wimbledon’s defence has been leakier in recent weeks, I’m backing Wrexham to continue their prolific home goal-scoring. 

Suggested bet: Wrexham to score over 1.5 goals (4/5)

Weekend acca summary:

Ipswich vs Sunderland   Ipswich win (11/10)

Cambridge v Fleetwood  Cambridge win (20/21)

Tranmere v MK Dons   Over 2.5 goals (8/11)

Wrexham v AFC Wimbledon   Wrexham over 1.5 goals (4/5)

Back all four selections as singles and/or bundle them together into an acca at combined odds of just under 12/1 on Planet Sport Bet (prices subject to change)

Tips provided by Rhys Tovey, who runs his AGF football service on Tipstrr